IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50%
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  IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50%
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Author Topic: IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50%  (Read 3747 times)
ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #25 on: September 17, 2014, 12:25:51 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-09-15

Summary: D: 44%, R: 50%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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backtored
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« Reply #26 on: September 17, 2014, 01:41:56 PM »

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isn’t six points.

2.) Wave.


If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.

The GOP won't win ten seats.

Iowa has a weak Democratic non-incumbent candidate and Colorado is in the midst of a conservative backlash against an outrageously liberal state legislature.  Those are two local factors that make Iowa and Colorado unique versus other races.

I am not saying that Republicans will win Iowa and Colorado.  But I am saying that if they do, these are two big reasons why that have nothing to do with North Carolina or Louisiana.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #27 on: September 17, 2014, 01:59:36 PM »

The polls have gone crazy. So Ernst is ahead and NH is tied, yet Hagan is building a significant lead and Roberts seems toast? Either the former or the latter is dead-wrong.
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Person Man
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« Reply #28 on: September 17, 2014, 02:00:04 PM »

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isn’t six points.

2.) Wave.


If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.

The GOP won't win ten seats.

Iowa has a weak Democratic non-incumbent candidate and Colorado is in the midst of a conservative backlash against an outrageously liberal state legislature.  Those are two local factors that make Iowa and Colorado unique versus other races.

I am not saying that Republicans will win Iowa and Colorado.  But I am saying that if they do, these are two big reasons why that have nothing to do with North Carolina or Louisiana.


I'll buy that as much as 2004-2008 was a backlash against the very conservative establishment in Colorado.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #29 on: September 17, 2014, 02:15:39 PM »

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isn’t six points.

2.) Wave.


If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.

The GOP won't win ten seats.

Iowa has a weak Democratic non-incumbent candidate and Colorado is in the midst of a conservative backlash against an outrageously liberal state legislature.  Those are two local factors that make Iowa and Colorado unique versus other races.

I am not saying that Republicans will win Iowa and Colorado.  But I am saying that if they do, these are two big reasons why that have nothing to do with North Carolina or Louisiana.


I'll buy that as much as 2004-2008 was a backlash against the very conservative establishment in Colorado.

Which it kinda was
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Free Bird
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« Reply #30 on: September 17, 2014, 02:16:01 PM »

The polls have gone crazy. So Ernst is ahead and NH is tied, yet Hagan is building a significant lead and Roberts seems toast? Either the former or the latter is dead-wrong.

Or perhaps it's happening
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DrScholl
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« Reply #31 on: September 17, 2014, 02:20:38 PM »

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #32 on: September 17, 2014, 02:37:29 PM »

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

This horrible poll is from a good pollster and the others sans like 1 in the MoE have bee questionable. If yuh PPP showed a lead like this would it be garbage?
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #33 on: September 17, 2014, 02:43:56 PM »

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.


This does not negate the fact that Braley was a bad choice as well and this has become a close race when Braley was supposed to win it easily.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #34 on: September 17, 2014, 02:46:47 PM »

Probably an outlier, but thank God Latham didn't run!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #35 on: September 17, 2014, 03:05:23 PM »

As spectacular as this is, it's probably not true. Ernst will certainly still win, but there's no way she has this big of a lead at this point.

That's absurd.

Not nearly as absurd as you saying Hillary will sweep the south.

Outlier, needs backup.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #36 on: September 17, 2014, 07:48:00 PM »

The polls have gone crazy. So Ernst is ahead and NH is tied, yet Hagan is building a significant lead and Roberts seems toast? Either the former or the latter is dead-wrong.

It's plausible different races are breaking in different directions as the low information voters start to tune in.
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Never
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« Reply #37 on: September 17, 2014, 07:55:38 PM »

The polls have gone crazy. So Ernst is ahead and NH is tied, yet Hagan is building a significant lead and Roberts seems toast? Either the former or the latter is dead-wrong.

It's plausible different races are breaking in different directions as the low information voters start to tune in.

That's a good point there. Perhaps the Senate races in question simply aren't nationalized as well, so we shouldn't expect uniformity in the polling numbers.
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KCDem
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« Reply #38 on: September 18, 2014, 01:39:49 AM »

Quinnipiac has a Republian bias in Colorado. This has been verified on multiple occasions.
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rmh8824
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« Reply #39 on: September 21, 2014, 10:04:07 PM »

As much as I'd love for it to be true....this race is too close, possibly the closest in the country.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: September 22, 2014, 06:54:27 AM »

Quinnipiac has a Republian bias in Colorado. This has been verified on multiple occasions.

That's a really good point. Braley can hold onto that point in his Iowa Senate race.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2014, 10:40:00 AM »

Both PPP and Selzer/Des Moines Register will release new IA polls in the next few days*, so we should know if Quinnipiac was on to something or if they are on crack or something.

* The DMR/Selzer poll is out on Saturday at 7pm, the PPP poll next Tuesday.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2014, 05:36:47 PM »

The polls have gone crazy. So Ernst is ahead and NH is tied, yet Hagan is building a significant lead and Roberts seems toast? Either the former or the latter is dead-wrong.

These are not house races Antonio. Roberts took his seat for granted in an era where incumbency is worthless and Tillis is proving to be a worse version of Rick Berg then Rick Berg in a state far less Republican than North Dakota.

These races are going to be individual enough so as to not be an either/or proposition.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #43 on: September 29, 2014, 08:06:15 AM »

The GOP and GOP front groups could be money-bombing any Senate race possible.
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