What If: Separatists Win 1995 Quebec Referendum?

[Kevin]

Was conflicted over whether I should have put this in the What If? section but thought I would get better answers here.

Anyways, since the Scottish Independence Referendum has been one of the stories dominating the news cycle, there has been comparisons to another big vote of this nature which was the 1995 vote for independence in Quebec.

What would have happened had the Sovereigntists won that vote?(Esp. considering that it was quite close to begin with-less then a point or so).

Would Quebec have become an independent state separate from Canada? As what I understand there were plans by the Chretien Government to somehow not honor the referendum or nudge out of it in the event of a "Yes" result.

I've read that the Canadian Government also planned to immediately pull out of the province any of it's assets whatever(ex. military, law enforcement, government bureaucratic office's etc) as to deny the Separatists the ability to have any of the infrastructure necessary for a new country. In addition to preventing them from using the CAD as a currency.

I also heard that there was wide support across the spectrum in Washington to prevent Quebec from joining NAFTA, NATO, or benefiting from any previous agreement signed with Ottawa. While many international corporations that had operations in the Province also planned to cease operations there.

So basically from my understanding an independent Quebec would have faced the same problems that an independent Scotland would (if hypothetically they win tomorrow)

[RogueBeaver]

There's an excellent book out which interviewed all the top leaders on both sides. Answer is no one really had an idea of the endgame. Chretien would not resign and would most likely stonewall. Yes side was divided, but Parizeau held all the Yes cards. Provincial Liberals would implode with between 1/3 and 1/2 of them joining the PQ.

[andrew_c]

The yes side was divided on what to do after a yes vote.  The PQ wanted to unilaterally declare independence, but the Bloc and the ADQ just wanted more bargaining power with Ottawa.  In the event of a narrow yes win, Ottawa would not have recognized the result of the referendum.  To sum it up, there would be chaos.  It would have sparked a very serious constitutional crisis.