I agree with Miles, I'd say Hagan could be ahead of Brannon by roughly 10 points. While he fared acceptably in
general election polls against Hagan during the primary, I suspect his level of support would have dropped precipitously after winning the nomination as voters saw more of him. Brannon doesn't have the same flaws as Tillis, but his drawbacks are enough that Hagan would definitely have even more of an advantage against him.
Alternately, in some unlikely scenario Brannon could have ended up being a candidate like Joni Ernst, keeping the race against Hagan close (though Brannon probably would have lagged behind Hagan by 2 points even in this case), but I seriously doubt that would have occurred.
