Two thoughts:
1.) Probably not six points. I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows? Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly. I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isn’t six points.
2.) Wave.
If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.
The GOP won't win ten seats.
Iowa has a weak Democratic non-incumbent candidate and Colorado is in the midst of a conservative backlash against an outrageously liberal state legislature. Those are two local factors that make Iowa and Colorado unique versus other races.
I am not saying that Republicans will win Iowa and Colorado. But I am saying that if they do, these are two big reasons why that have nothing to do with North Carolina or Louisiana.
