IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50%

[Free Bird]

So when Q, a good pollster, releases a poll showing Ernst up mid-single, it is suddenly Dick Morris. But when Loras shows the same thing for Braley, it is fine. Gimme a break. I am not saying this is exact, but if this continues, the reds here will really have some reality to start accepting.

[Free Bird]

Two thoughts:

1.) Probably not six points.  I have heard that Braley has a very small MOE lead in internals, but who knows?  Quinnipiac might be using a voter screen that is more GOP-friendly.  I have no problem buying that Ernst has a lead, even if it isn’t six points.

2.) Wave.

If Quinnipiac releases a CO senate poll, I am expecting similar results. I agree with you that if Republicans are doing very well in Colorado and Iowa, they will probably win about 10 senate seats.

The GOP won't win ten seats.

Iowa has a weak Democratic non-incumbent candidate and Colorado is in the midst of a conservative backlash against an outrageously liberal state legislature.  Those are two local factors that make Iowa and Colorado unique versus other races.

I am not saying that Republicans will win Iowa and Colorado.  But I am saying that if they do, these are two big reasons why that have nothing to do with North Carolina or Louisiana.

I'll buy that as much as 2004-2008 was a backlash against the very conservative establishment in Colorado.

Which it kinda was

[Free Bird]

The polls have gone crazy. So Ernst is ahead and NH is tied, yet Hagan is building a significant lead and Roberts seems toast? Either the former or the latter is dead-wrong.

Or perhaps it's happening

[Free Bird]

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

This horrible poll is from a good pollster and the others sans like 1 in the MoE have bee questionable. If yuh PPP showed a lead like this would it be garbage?