IA: Quinnipac has Ernst +6 and at 50%

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Ernst: 50%
Braley: 44%

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It's 50-44.

Seems like an outlier,honestly.

Thanks for pointing that out, I just fixed it.

Now, as for it being an outlier, Quinnipac seemed to explain that part of the shift could be explained by the change in their sample to likely voters from registered ones:

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This is only a four point difference from PPP's last poll, and Quinnipiac is usually a good pollster. These numbers seem wrong at first glance, but they're probably not terribly far off.

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The polls have gone crazy. So Ernst is ahead and NH is tied, yet Hagan is building a significant lead and Roberts seems toast? Either the former or the latter is dead-wrong.

It's plausible different races are breaking in different directions as the low information voters start to tune in.

That's a good point there. Perhaps the Senate races in question simply aren't nationalized as well, so we shouldn't expect uniformity in the polling numbers.