Districts to vote for a different party's Presidential nominee than in 2000

[nclib]

Voted for Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004:

NC-13 (Miller)
OR-4 (DeFazio)

Voted for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004:

AR-1 (Berry)
AR-4 (Ross)
CA-18 (Cardoza)
FL-10 (Young)
IA-3 (Boswell)
NV-3 (Porter)
NJ-2 (LoBiondo)
NJ-3 (Saxton)
NJ-4 (Smith)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-13 (Fossella)
TN-8 (Tanner)
WV-3 (Rahall)
some districts in Texas (unsure because on redistricting)


Does anybody have any information on these districts...

[Smash255]

Voted for Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004:

NC-13 (Miller)
OR-4 (DeFazio)

Voted for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004:

AR-1 (Berry)
AR-4 (Ross)
CA-18 (Cardoza)
FL-10 (Young)
IA-3 (Boswell)
NV-3 (Porter)
NJ-2 (LoBiondo)
NJ-3 (Saxton)
NJ-4 (Smith)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-13 (Fossella)
TN-8 (Tanner)
WV-3 (Rahall)
some districts in Texas (unsure because on redistricting)


Does anybody have any information on these districts...

NY-01  Eastern Long Island,  basically a moderate district, that is moving leftward as a whole, Bush won this district basically because of 9/11.  Innteresting sidenote in 2000 the district voted for the Dem President Gore & the Republican in the COngressional election in Grucci, this year they voted for the Rep Preisdential Candidate & the Dem COngressman (Bishop defeated Grucci in 01)

NY 13  Mostly Staten Island, Always the Most Conservative & Republican district in NYC  (moderate)  went to Bush for the same reason as NY-01 did  9/11

[Rob]

OR-4 (DeFazio)

Does anybody have any information on these districts...

Why yes, I happen to live in that district. In 2000, Gore was hurt in the district by his environmentalism. Environmental regulations were hurting the timber industry (which has a very strong presence in the district, especially in the more rural southern area), and many laid-off workers voted for Bush in anger.

Another thing that hurt him was... lack of environmentalism. This may sound paradoxical- and it sort of is- but it makes sense when you know that the university towns of Eugene and Corvallis (both very liberal) are environmentalist strongholds. Nader ran well in both cities, drawing votes away from Gore. The lessened Gore vote in the liberal strongholds, combined with the heavy Bush vote in the GOP strongholds, enabled Bush to carry the district.

In 2004, Bush won the same lopsided victories in the Republican areas (such as Douglas County), but most of the 2000 Nader vote went to Kerry, giving him the victory.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Are you using the current districts for the 2000 data? For example for NY, there are 29 districts now, and there were 31 in 2000. 

I'm guessing you are, since Cardozo's distict was less Democratic when it was Condit's district.

Condit had a scandal, and he was a moderate, so they gave him a more liberal district so he'd easily get primaried.

[Sam Spade]

There were at least two of the seven Hispanic-dominated Districts in Texas (specifically South Texas) that voted for Bush and have Dem. Reps. (I forget which ones).

There might have been more.  The Bush shift in South Texas, especially among rural and suburban Hispanics was quite large and yet at the same time I don't think his losses in the Austin area were anywhere near enough to flip any Districts there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obviously Lloyd Doggett's district must've voted for Kerry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WV-3: coalfield turnout was pretty bad across the state in 2004... in addition to that a lot of socially conservative Evangelicals (remember in WV most of these people are Democrats) swung hard against Kerry (while happily voting for Manchin and Rahall).

[Sam Spade]

Obviously Lloyd Doggett's district must've voted for Kerry.

Yes, but not by much.  It's sandwiched in between these other Districts that all switched which I'm listing below.

According to Polidata, the CDs in Texas that switched all were South Texas Hispanic-dominated districts. (Chet Edwards' district went Republican in 2000 and was no different this time around.)

CD-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
CD-27 (Solomon P. Ortiz)
CD-28 (Henry Cuellar)

[nclib]

Are you using the current districts for the 2000 data? For example for NY, there are 29 districts now, and there were 31 in 2000. 

I'm guessing you are, since Cardozo's distict was less Democratic when it was Condit's district.

Yes, I'm using the current districts.

[nclib]

Obviously Lloyd Doggett's district must've voted for Kerry.

Yes, but not by much.  It's sandwiched in between these other Districts that all switched which I'm listing below.

According to Polidata, the CDs in Texas that switched all were South Texas Hispanic-dominated districts. (Chet Edwards' district went Republican in 2000 and was no different this time around.)

CD-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
CD-27 (Solomon P. Ortiz)
CD-28 (Henry Cuellar)

Shouldn't there still be a fourth district (other than Edwards) to switch? According to Polidata, 17 districts switched from Gore to Bush and I can only find 13 outside of Texas.

[Sam Spade]

Obviously Lloyd Doggett's district must've voted for Kerry.

Yes, but not by much.  It's sandwiched in between these other Districts that all switched which I'm listing below.

According to Polidata, the CDs in Texas that switched all were South Texas Hispanic-dominated districts. (Chet Edwards' district went Republican in 2000 and was no different this time around.)

CD-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
CD-27 (Solomon P. Ortiz)
CD-28 (Henry Cuellar)

Shouldn't there still be a fourth district (other than Edwards) to switch? According to Polidata, 17 districts switched from Gore to Bush and I can only find 13 outside of Texas.

Polidata only says that CD-15, CD-27, CD-28 and the afore-mentioned Edwards district had Dem. Reps while voting for Bush.

Maybe Doggett's CD did flip and Polidata's simply wrong on that, but I don't think that's the case.

There's simply no other Texas CD's left that would stand a chance of voting for Bush while electing Dem. Reps.  All the other ones left are major-league inner-city ones.

So, the other District must be somewhere else, I must assume.

[No more McShame]

OR-4 (DeFazio)

Does anybody have any information on these districts...

Why yes, I happen to live in that district. In 2000, Gore was hurt in the district by his environmentalism. Environmental regulations were hurting the timber industry (which has a very strong presence in the district, especially in the more rural southern area), and many laid-off workers voted for Bush in anger.

Another thing that hurt him was... lack of environmentalism. This may sound paradoxical- and it sort of is- but it makes sense when you know that the university towns of Eugene and Corvallis (both very liberal) are environmentalist strongholds. Nader ran well in both cities, drawing votes away from Gore. The lessened Gore vote in the liberal strongholds, combined with the heavy Bush vote in the GOP strongholds, enabled Bush to carry the district.

In 2004, Bush won the same lopsided victories in the Republican areas (such as Douglas County), but most of the 2000 Nader vote went to Kerry, giving him the victory.

Bob, isn't Corvallis in OR-5 (Hooley)?  If DeFaggio ever retires that would be one hell of a race for the open seat.

[Rob]

Bob, isn't Corvallis in OR-5 (Hooley)?  If DeFaggio ever retires that would be one hell of a race for the open seat.

Hmm, it actually is. It's almost on the damn line, too. What a gerrymander: http://bluebook.state.or.us/national/reps/mapbig.htm