2016 - Return of the Gore

[Maxwell]

During the early pre-primary season, Hillary Clinton faced very few challenges along the way. Announcing in January, she all but cleared the potential field. Few rivals emerged, even fewer serious. Former Ambassador to China Gary Locke, a former Governor of Washington, ran a campaign on diplomacy and healthcare, mostly as a jab to Hillary's hawkish nature. Governor Martin O'Malley, continuing to fight for relevance that fluttered away from him at every turn. Former Congressman Heath Schuler challenged Clinton from the right, pushing tax credits as a solution to everything. Even by August, she held 50 point leads over the field.

August Democratic Primary Polling
59% Former S.o.S. Hillary Clinton
9% Governor Martin O'Malley
8% Congressman Heath Schuler
6% Former Ambassador Gary Locke
8% Others
10% Undecided

However, by September, a new, invigorating candidate emerged. A candidate who had wandered the wilderness for a long time and has come out more fiery than ever. A transformation of a career, starting as a moderate Senator from Tennessee to an out right liberal, Former Vice President Al Gore was ready for the fight of his life. He started out to trail by over 30 points, but Gore had faced long odds before. Gore announced his candidacy on September 12th, 2015.

"Fourteen years after the tragic day, and we still deal with surveillance and war in Iraq, a country that didn't even do us harm. The war effort causes me great sadness, and as your President, on the first day in office I will stop this war and send our men and women in the armed forces home. The fact we have someone in this race that wants to send more men to the grave troubles me greatly, and I will not stand for a Democratic Party that loves war. I am announcing my candidacy, and together, we will make this country a better place to live."

Democratic Nomination Poll (Post-Gore)
51% Former SoS. Hillary Clinton
18% Former Vice President Al Gore
6% Former Governor Martin O'Malley
4% Former Congressman Heath Schuler
3% Former Ambassador Gary Locke

As the campaign went on, Gore went to every single county in Iowa, vowing to be the person who would put forward a liberal agenda for the country. Proposing immigration reform, green energy, a complete overhaul of the Pentagon, and a reform of the tax code that would help the middle class, Gore ran to the left of Clinton on just about every issue. Martin O'Malley proved to be a thorn in both of their sides, calling them "the opposing sides of the Clinton coin". Meanwhile, Schuler and Locke became more and more irrelevant as the race started to change. Even though Gore put in a concentrated effort in Iowa, none suspected him to win, which is why it was so shocking when:

Former Vice President Al Gore has won the Iowa Caucuses


Iowa Caucus Results
43.8% Former Vice President Al Gore
36.4% Former S.o.S. Hillary Clinton
14.2% Former Governor Martin O'Malley
1.8% Former Congressman Heath Schuler
1.5% Former Ambassador Gary Locke
2.2% Others

[Cranberry]

This is great!

[Jerseyrules]

Holy crap, this is awesome.

[Maxwell]

The Lead-up to New Hampshire

Former Vice President Al Gore saw a massive, twenty point bump in the polls after his victory in Iowa, and while not leading, was within the margin of error for the Democratic nomination. Hillary's advantage with blue collar workers came at a cost - to black and hispanic voters, and hispanics in particular were looking to Gore with some interest. Ruben Hinojosa, the leader of the Hispanic Caucus, announced his endorsement of Gore, along with several other members of the caucus. The tide was starting to turn for Gore's favor.

The Clinton people, fearful for the future, dropped massive resources in the state of New Hampshire. Doing town halls in just about every town, Hillary knew how her husband won the state, and followed the strategy of getting to know people. Her foreign policy views continually became a hinderance, but she experienced something of a rebound in approval from the New Hampshire voters, even as Gore starting inching closer.

O'Malley's irrelevance was showing. In the last couple of debates, his presence had increasingly be shrinking, down to getting half of the time the other candidates got. He protested this, and made his campaign more about Democratic action and the control of debates, but his efforts were futile, being outspent by both Clinton and Gore 10-1 each. O'Malley's final hopes clinged to solid performances in New Hampshire and Nevada, both of which seemed out of reach.

The final poll in New Hampshire showed Gore with a lead for the first time. It turned out, however, that poll, commissioned by Bloomberg, proved to be disastrously wrong...

New Hampshire Primary Result:
53.7% Former S.O.S. Hillary Clinton
32.2% Former Vice Presient Al Gore
11.7% Former Governor Martin O'Malley
2.4% Others

Anti-Hillary voters wanted to blame Martin O'Malley for Gore's failure, but Hillary's strong performance proved that false, as she scored over 50%. Instead, it was Gore's rather weak ground game that did a lot of damage, causing him to fall way behind, and credited to Clinton's strong debate performances. This result was a boon for Clinton, putting her back in the lead by double digits.

O'Mally vowed to stay in the race, even after another disappointing performance. But that didn't matter. Now it was a battle between Gore and Clinton, becoming more evenly matched in money and skill, the two were ready to duke it out for the campaign season. It was like Obama vs. Hillary all over again.

[NHI]

This is great!!!

[NewYorkExpress]

You do realize that there's a reason Gore didn't run in 2008, and it wasn't Obama's presence...

That said, it's an excellent start.

[Maxwell]

Post-NH Results
Michigan - 51.8% Clinton, 38.4% Gore, 8.5% O'Malley, 1.3% Others
Nevada - 49.5% Clinton, 29.2% Gore, 16.1% O'Malley, 4.2% Others

In early primaries, Gore's advantage with black voters turned out poorly. In Michigan, Gore required massive support out of Detroit in order to win, and he not only lost, he lost by double digits. Clinton's blue collar crossover continued to gain her support, and it looked like Gore's campaign increasingly began to falter. Hispanic congressmen were split, with Clinton's immigration views moving closer and closer to the electorate, Gore's advantage falling apart.

However, circumstances began to shift back into Gore's favor. Governor Martin O'Malley, after a disappointing third place in Nevada, endorsed Gore in his leaving, calling him "a hero for our progressive cause". Another powerful figure came through for Gore as well: Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, someone who originally was considered a strong running mate for Hillary Clinton. Booker's endorsement gave Gore a strong boost in the state of South Carolina, where black turnout is a big issue in the race.

Clinton still had an advantage in campaign infrastructure, adapting a good amount of the Obama
machine, but Gore's surge in South Carolina managed to over-ride that. Gore's inspiring speech about hope in America gave his campaign a major boost, a first time lead in the primary polls, and for once in his career, Gore wasn't the boring man in the race.

South Carolina Democratic Primary
48.9% Former Vice President Al Gore
48.6% Former S.O.S. Hillary Clinton
2.5% Others

[Unimog]

Ths is a great timeline.