HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? (user search)
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  HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? (search mode)
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Author Topic: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset?  (Read 2338 times)
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« on: September 12, 2014, 05:59:33 PM »

Bullsh*t. Hawaii polling sucks and this is an example of it. Ige will win by at least 6 points. I also don't see how Hannemann is polling above 10%.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2014, 06:37:13 PM »

Given what happened with Lingle, I could easily see Ige win by 15-20+ points, but we really don't know until election day.

From almost everything I've heard on the ground, Ige is very popular. He ought to win a quite respectable victory.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2014, 09:55:04 AM »

I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.

If you add "How hard it is to poll accurately in Hawaii" and Rasmussen, it's not a pretty combination.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2014, 01:49:16 PM »

Hawaii polls. Ige should win, but if Abercrombie somehow survived this would probably be Toss-up or lean R.

Had Abercrombie won the primary, Hannemann would have become a bigger threat. The two of them and their supporters have some bad blood from the 2010 primary.

That isn't a problem now, because Ige picks up alot of Hannemann voters.
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