HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:24:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset?  (Read 2339 times)
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 12, 2014, 11:32:45 AM »

Link coming.

Ige (D)- 40%
Aiona (R)- 39%
Hanneman (I)- 14%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2014, 12:01:58 PM »

Ige will pull it off.
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2014, 12:07:37 PM »

Toss-up.  I think Duke has a great shot here.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2014, 12:59:40 PM »

Interesting. I would've expected Ige to be dominating after his historic primary performance.
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,234
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2014, 03:08:02 PM »

>Hawaii polls
>Rasmussen
Logged
Dixie Reborn
BeyondTruthAndIdeals
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 817
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2014, 03:44:59 PM »

Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2014, 04:18:52 PM »

Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster.

Eh, I wouldn't say so. Rassy is the only pollster that under-bid the performance of Neil Abercrombie over Duke Aiona (their last poll had it at 58-32, it ended up 58-40). The worst pollster in Hawaii, for my money, is actually PPP, who had a poll a month before election with Abercrombie only up 2. Rassy is not good here, much like else where, but it's better than the other pollsters in the region.
Logged
Andrew1
Rookie
**
Posts: 102
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2014, 04:49:51 PM »

Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster.

Anyone remember their 2010 Senate poll with Cavasso on 40% ? He got 22% !
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2014, 04:51:24 PM »

^ Maxwell, that was their penultimate poll. Their final poll only had Abercrombie up 2.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2014, 05:00:13 PM »

^ Maxwell, that was their penultimate poll. Their final poll only had Abercrombie up 2.

That was rassy? oh, my bad. Yea, rassy is terrible, withdrawn.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,475
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2014, 05:03:49 PM »

Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,928


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2014, 05:52:40 PM »

No, Ige will win easily.
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2014, 05:59:33 PM »

Bullsh*t. Hawaii polling sucks and this is an example of it. Ige will win by at least 6 points. I also don't see how Hannemann is polling above 10%.
Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2014, 06:07:24 PM »

Given what happened with Lingle, I could easily see Ige win by 15-20+ points, but we really don't know until election day.
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2014, 06:37:13 PM »

Given what happened with Lingle, I could easily see Ige win by 15-20+ points, but we really don't know until election day.

From almost everything I've heard on the ground, Ige is very popular. He ought to win a quite respectable victory.
Logged
Panda Express
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,578


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2014, 08:51:34 AM »

I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2014, 09:55:04 AM »

I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.

If you add "How hard it is to poll accurately in Hawaii" and Rasmussen, it's not a pretty combination.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2014, 09:56:03 AM »

RASMUSSEN
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2014, 02:14:41 AM »

I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.

If you add "How hard it is to poll accurately in Hawaii" and Rasmussen, it's not a pretty combination.

LOL

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/questions/questions_hawaii_senate_october_13_2010

Rasmussen probably thought the Republican wave was going to hit Hawaii. I think that wave ended up somewhere around Antartica instead. Democrats won this particular Senate race by 53 points, gained the governor race, and defeated all but 1 Republican in the state Senate.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2014, 01:23:30 PM »

Hawaii polls. Ige should win, but if Abercrombie somehow survived this would probably be Toss-up or lean R.
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2014, 01:49:16 PM »

Hawaii polls. Ige should win, but if Abercrombie somehow survived this would probably be Toss-up or lean R.

Had Abercrombie won the primary, Hannemann would have become a bigger threat. The two of them and their supporters have some bad blood from the 2010 primary.

That isn't a problem now, because Ige picks up alot of Hannemann voters.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.037 seconds with 14 queries.