|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 05, 2020, 08:43:54 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead  (Read 3033 times)
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,929


« on: September 12, 2014, 07:20:47 am »

RV to LV screen continues to be a joke.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,929


« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2014, 07:45:18 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,929


« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2014, 08:18:01 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,929


« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2014, 08:24:24 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,929


« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2014, 08:30:55 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,929


« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2014, 08:40:05 pm »

Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.

I'm not saying Likely Voters are perfect - far from it. However, it paints a more accurate picture than Registered Voters.

That depends on the tightness of the likely voter screen.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.154 seconds with 16 queries.