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  NC-Elon University: Hagan leads by 4%
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Author Topic: NC-Elon University: Hagan leads by 4%  (Read 1909 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: September 15, 2014, 12:50:30 am »
« edited: September 15, 2014, 12:58:02 am by ℒief »

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/091514_ElonPollExecutiveReport.pdf

Hagan 45%
Tillis 41%
Other 9%

Hagan leads by six among registered voters, 43-37.

North Carolina is increasingly looking like a Lean D state, along with Colorado and Michigan.
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2014, 01:03:12 am »

If the GOP captures the senate and can't win North Carolina or Iowa it's a very ominous sign.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2014, 01:03:24 am »

Well well well, this is starting to look like a trend.

*ducks* before FreedomHawk calls me a hack.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2014, 01:04:50 am »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Other Source on 2014-09-09

Summary: D: 45%, R: 41%, I: 9%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2014, 01:06:02 am »

Looks like the "tossup" states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are all pink on the Atlas map now. Smiley
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2014, 01:13:14 am »

If the GOP captures the senate and can't win North Carolina or Iowa it's a very ominous sign.

Without NC or IA the GOP would need to win AR, LA, MT, AK, WV and SD... not at all impossible, and that only gets them a bare majority - throw in a weird seat like GA or KS... and who knows.

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Knives
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2014, 01:15:09 am »

Hagan is obviously an excellent campaigner because all indicators point to the fact that the Republicans should be winning this.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2014, 01:22:02 am »

That's the fourth poll so far this month which has Hagan winning.  There was also the Tillis internal which showed a tie.  The state of the race looks clear.


Looks like the "tossup" states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are all pink on the Atlas map now. Smiley

On a somewhat related note, at 538 they note that the Senate Democratic candidates in purple/swing states are "beating the national mood."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-in-purple-states-are-beating-the-national-mood/
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2014, 01:28:15 am »

Impossible. Republicans will gain at least 7 seats.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2014, 01:30:24 am »

Hagan is obviously an excellent campaigner because all indicators point to the fact that the Republicans should be winning this.

Hagan has a good campaign manager. He's the guy who ran Reid's 2010 campaign, as well as Tester's 2012 campaign.

I think the financial disparity is showing too. Hagan has $7 million more in her warchest and is unloading on Tillis. Then add the $9.1 million buy from the DSCC.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2014, 01:53:54 am »

It seems the denizens of North Carolina are quite fond of their new Hagancare.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2014, 03:30:17 am »

Not surprising, considering that Tillis almost killed education in NC, and Democratic groups (inside as outside) using that for all it's worth. Those ads are extremely effective if I may say it myself. Smiley
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2014, 04:29:23 am »

I think the financial disparity is showing too. Hagan has $7 million more in her warchest and is unloading on Tillis. Then add the $9.1 million buy from the DSCC.

Koch brothers unloaded more than 20 millions on Hagan during the last two years, so to talk about a financial disparity that favors her is a bit disingenuous.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2014, 07:48:38 am »

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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2014, 08:59:32 am »
« Edited: September 15, 2014, 09:02:42 am by Miles »

Its been a while since Elon's had a poll here (before the summer, IIRC), but their last poll had Hagan's approval at about 33/50. She's only slightly negative now, 41/45, which helps a lot.

Over the last few polls, Hagan is holding up better than I expected with whites. She's losing them 51/34 here; if that holds, she'd be on track to relicate her 57/39 loss with them in 2008.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2014, 09:52:48 am »

So I just looked at the crosstabs, and Hagan is trailing among Christians. She only leads because of her overwhelming margins with "something else" and "no religion" voters. Godless Kay Hagan indeed. Somewhere Elizabeth Dole is smiling...
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 09:57:39 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 10:00:20 am by Dave Leip »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Elon University on 2014-05-09

Summary: D: 45%, R: 41%, I: 9%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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