NC: SUSA: Hagan +3

[GaussLaw]

Also, notice how the Triangle is carrying the state for Hagan:

Charlotte: -3
Greensboro: -16
Raleigh: +22
Southern: -14

I'm guessing they put most of the heavily-GOP northwest (around NC-05) in with Greensboro. Its good for Hagan that the Raleigh metro tends to have the highest turnout rates.

This reminds me of how McDaniel won with just the South-Central region being in his column. 

Tillis is very polarizing and toxic, so it's not surprising that Hagan has a slight lead.