YouGov/NYT releases 2nd round of Governor polls

[Miles]

Link.

Competitive/Semi-competitive races:

AR: Hutchinson +7
AZ: Ducey +1
CO: Tied
CT: Malloy +1
FL: Scott +3
GA: Deal +8
HI: Ige +2
IL: Rauner +4
MA: Coakley +8
ME: LePage +1 (Cutler at 14%)
MI: Snyder +1
MN: Dayton +7
NM: Martinez +5
OK: Fallin +18
OH: Kasich +13
PA: Wolf +11
SC: Haley +21 (!)
WI: Walker +4

[Tender Branson]

Once again, some of these results are plain strange.

Others make sense.

Let's also not forget that these polls are already quite old and were conducted over a 2 week timespan.

For example, the GA poll is consistent with the earlier SurveyUSA poll that had Deal up 9 and which was done during the same timespan.

The new SUSA poll shows Deal up by just 1 point though ...

[Flake]

Terrible polling with inaccurate results

[Devils30]

Never been a fan of the Yougov polls. They just seem a bit inconsistent with other polls in states like Florida and last time Kansas. The two week frame is too large as well and incorporating internet respondents leads room for error as well. 

[windjammer]

Haley isn't leading by 21, period.

[Devils30]

They re-interviewed the same people as well, you simply can't do that to get an accurate picture. That is not a random sample anymore.

[Tender Branson]

Also, the Wolf+11 result has already been discredited by the new Quinnipiac poll, which shows more than twice that lead ...

[Miles]

Also, the Wolf+11 result has already been discredited by the new Quinnipiac poll, which shows more than twice that lead ...

FWIW, Wolf is winning half as many Republicans in this poll as Quinnipiac (14% vs 28%).

[Tender Branson]

Full results:





http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-are-democrats-republicans-doing-in-governors-races/

[Tender Branson]

Also, the Wolf+11 result has already been discredited by the new Quinnipiac poll, which shows more than twice that lead ...

FWIW, Wolf is winning half as many Republicans in this poll as Quinnipiac (14% vs 28%).

Considering the terrible state Corbett is in, Q's numbers should be more accurate.

Corbett will bleed many Republicans ...

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL at Kansas being Lean Republican.

[backtored]

Most of them actually look pretty reasonable, except for Kansas, which YouGov had weird numbers for last time, too.  And I doubt that Malloy is really up in Connecticut.  I don’t understand how they can have Snyder +1 in Michigan and still have Peters down by one in their Senate release.  I mean, every other poll has the gubernatorial race tied but the Peters up by high single digits.

They’re not using the same batch of voters for every poll are they?  It seems like they are at least not changing their voter screens, which they ought to do given the outlying nature of their Kansas and Michigan polling.  I mean, KS-gov and MI-sen aren’t even serious. 

Oh well, I think that these mega-poll dumps are still a lot of fun.  If Quinnipiac or Survey USA did something like this it would pretty awesome.

[Free Bird]

Doc Brown: I AM GOING TO PUT THIS IN THE TRASH

[Free Bird]

Let's talk CT. This was before the Q poll was conducted, right? For the record, let's establish that Q is fairly decent at polls. There is no way in hell that it can go from an okay but respectable Foley lead, to a +1 Malloy lead, and immediately swing back to a decent Foley lead. Absolutely no way. CT voters aren't like that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look at Martinez plus 5, KING in range.

[Keystone Phil]

LOL at Kansas being Lean Republican.

Easy, pal! Not even I want to put it in Safe GOP yet!

[muon2]

I've seen a number of individual district polls in IL that poll the Gov at the same time. I can project based on the last two governor's races how the district results should compare to the state. Based on that I would say that the YouGov result for IL looks pretty close to those projections. What I don't know is whether they polled the Libertarian which can move the results.

[IceSpear]

Garbage.

[IceSpear]

Also, the Wolf+11 result has already been discredited by the new Quinnipiac poll, which shows more than twice that lead ...

Yup. Same for Connecticut and Kansas, completely contradicted by polls far more reliable than YouGov. It makes me wonder if their headline grabbing Scottish independence poll was worth the paper it was printed on.

[SPQR]

They re-interviewed the same people as well, you simply can't do that to get an accurate picture. That is not a random sample anymore.

Ahahahahah oh God...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Link.

Competitive/Semi-competitive races:

AR: Hutchinson +7
AZ: Ducey +1
CO: Tied
CT: Malloy +1
FL: Scott +3
GA: Deal +8
HI: Ige +2
IL: Rauner +4
KS: Brownback +7
MA: Coakley +8
ME: LePage +1 (Cutler at 14%)
MI: Snyder +1
MN: Dayton +7
NM: Martinez +5
OK: Fallin +18
OH: Kasich +13
PA: Wolf +11
SC: Haley +21 (!)
WI: Walker +4

PA, SC, GA, HI and KS look wrong, maybe MN, NM, and WI as well. At least they included Cutler this time.

Just as with the last round, the amount of mistakes/apparent mistakes among senate and gubernatorial races keeps this polling firmly out of my averages.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL at Kansas being Lean Republican.

Easy, pal! Not even I want to put it in Safe GOP yet!

Stop whining Phil.

[Keystone Phil]

LOL at Kansas being Lean Republican.

Easy, pal! Not even I want to put it in Safe GOP yet!

Stop whining Phil.

There wasn't a hint of whining in my post, big guy! Calm down!

[The Other Castro]

Let's talk CT. This was before the Q poll was conducted, right? For the record, let's establish that Q is fairly decent at polls. There is no way in hell that it can go from an okay but respectable Foley lead, to a +1 Malloy lead, and immediately swing back to a decent Foley lead. Absolutely no way. CT voters aren't like that

Agreed, Foley is definitely leading by at least a couple points right now (and should win if he keeps a lead of at least +3%)

[Andrew1]

Now they've got over their Kansas mix-up and put the Governor figures up it shows Brownback with an improbable 47-40 lead over Davis. Their previous poll had Brownback at an even more improbable 52-40 lead, so just terrible polling, or genuine movement away from Brownback?