GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now trails by 1
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  GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now trails by 1
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Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now trails by 1  (Read 1287 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 10, 2014, 06:42:31 AM »
« edited: September 10, 2014, 10:23:56 AM by Tender Branson »

45% Deal (-3)
44% Carter (+5)

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/local/2014/09/09/exclusive-poll-shows-race-for-governor-tied/15323019
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SPQR
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2014, 06:52:55 AM »

Big swings in both races (Nunn going from -9 to -3,Carter going from -9 to +1).

Any reason for it,or just terrible polling/outliers?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2014, 06:56:22 AM »

Big swings in both races (Nunn going from -9 to -3,Carter going from -9 to +1).

Any reason for it,or just terrible polling/outliers?

This poll has a D+3 sample, their previous was R+2.

That might explain it.

SurveyUSA also mentions that the summer break might have played a role in between:

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backtored
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2014, 09:49:13 AM »

I still don't think Carter will win a runoff he can't get to 50% in November.  But the Dems have a very significant GOTV effort on the ground in the state and if he is at 48 or 49 percent in the polling going into Election Day, that might be enough to knock him over the line.  Not likely, but still possible.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2014, 09:59:12 AM »

Why is the sample D+3?
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2014, 10:02:20 AM »

Splendid news!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2014, 10:04:02 AM »


The typical bouncing around in the polls.

I guess in the previous poll, Republican voters told SUSA they are more motivated to vote in November, producing an R sample.

And now Democrats say they are more motivated in GA.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2014, 10:16:44 AM »

Whoever entered the poll into the database flipped the numbers around.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2014, 10:24:49 AM »

Whoever entered the poll into the database flipped the numbers around.

Looks like the 11alive-people got the numbers wrong and put Carter+1 in their article.

The SUSA crosstabs show Deal+1, so the database entry is correct.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2014, 02:54:35 PM »

Whoever entered the poll into the database flipped the numbers around.

Looks like the 11alive-people got the numbers wrong and put Carter+1 in their article.

The SUSA crosstabs show Deal+1, so the database entry is correct.

Sad
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2014, 05:02:24 AM »

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