Just disagree over S. Belfast, though I wouldn't be surprised in your call is correct.
I just changed my prediction regarding South Belfast from a UUP win to a DUP win. It wasn't just because of your post. Even when I first made the prediction it seemed like all the signs (apart from which party has done better there in past elections) were pointing in the DUP's favor, but I didn't like the picture I saw of Sprat next to Molyneaux and Smyth and looked for evidence to support a UUP victory, which I found in the fact that McGimpsey had been the leading UUP candidate in the 2003 Assembly election where his party had led the DUP by 6 percentage points in the first count totals. But I've had a feeling for a while that Sprat will win, maybe by a few percentage points or more, and that feeling hasn't changed so I decided to change my prediction. I haven't seen any polls for that race so it could be that McGimpsey has moved into the lead in the polls after being down (not that I know that he was down in the polls) and that I'm changing my prediction in the opposite direction as most people who are changing their expectation regarding this race. I'll proverbially kick myself if McGimpsey wins this race and all my other Westminster predictions are correct, but I know it's just a fun predictions contest (with no money lost), so I'll be fine whatever happens.
Sincerely,
Kevin Lamoreau