CO: Rasmussen: Beauprez pulls slightly ahead

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BEAUMENTUM.  IT'S HAPPENING.

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Beauprez leads by 1 and Gardner trails by 2.
Why?

Because Hickenlooper is even more vulnerable than Udall.  Hickenlooper was a rubberstamp for a legislative session that was much more liberal than the state.  There has been an enormous backlash against specifically local legislation that has fueled a strong resurgence in the GOP's opportunity to win the gubernatorial and local legislative races (and other statewide races).

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I've also heard that, going into this cycle, Udall knew he'd eventually wind up in a tough race; he ran a more proactive campaign earlier. I think that might be part of why he's doing better now vis-a-vis Hick.

Hick has been viewed as vulnerable since the 2013 legislative session and the recalls.  A lot of local Democrats thought that Tancredo would be the nominee, which may explain any myopia on their part.  And I think that a lot of Democrats did then and do now find it inconceivable that John Hickenlooper could lose.  But those are the same Democrats who scoffed at the possibility of Democrats in D-leaning Senate districts being recalled.  Those are the same Democrats who thought that their education tax hike would pass.  I can’t say that it is certain that Beauprez will win.  It is going to be tight, most likely.  But I can definitely say that Hick has been vulnerable for a very long time and his party’s stubborn insistence that the state had become basically a blue state probably has a lot to do with that vulnerability.

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Hickenlooper is in worse shape than Udall, because of the death penalty (which is strongly favoured by CO-voters, but Hickenlooper likes to pardon murderers).

Nope. The problem is that Hick didn't pardon anybody.  The problem is that instead of pardoning Dunlap, he simply wiped his hands clean of the whole thing and said that he wouldn't take a stand on the matter until he stopped being governor.  And then he threatened to grant clemency if the GOP made it an issue in the campaign, which, of course, they have.

I would actually support clemency for Dunlap, but I could never support punting on a key political issue like that.  I mean, they're showing ads now with the father of one of the shooter's victims calling Hick "coward" on camera.  That alone may be enough to sink his re-election.