NC-POS (R)/Tillis internal: Tie

[Tender Branson]

44-44-8 Hagan/Tillis/Haugh

Methodology:

Public Opinion Strategies completed a telephone survey of likely voters in North Carolina for
the Thom Tillis Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). The
survey was conducted September 2-4, 2014 among 600 likely voters, including 180 cell phone
only respondents, and has a margin of error of +4.0% in 95 out of 100 cases.

The sample is 72% white, 21% African American, and 7% other minorities, compared to 2012
when the exit polls showed 70% white and 23% African American. By party, 32% are
Republicans and 41% are Democrats. In the 2012 exit polls, it was 33% GOP and 39%
Democratic voters.

http://pos.org/documents/nc_sept_brushfire_survey_key_findings.pdf

[Miles]

Again, even the Republican firms have Haugh doing pretty well.

I don't expect to hear any more complaints about democrat hack firm PPP trying to make Haugh look good.

[Senator Cris]

Great news for Hagan.
Also, 8% won't be the Haugh % in November, so I imagine that a great number of Haugh supporters will go for Tillis.

[backtored]

I mean, the sample looks pretty decent, but what exactly is the point of releasing an internal showing you tied when other polling shows you ahead?  Unless:

1.) The race really is tied (more likely)

2.) They think PPP is going to show a decent Hagan lead in their NC-Sen. poll release this next week (less likely)

[Miles]

Also notice the NCGA approval is only at -2; that actually makes the NCGA one of the more popular state legislatures around the country. 

Most polls, though, have it down 2:1 or more.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, the sample looks pretty decent, but what exactly is the point of releasing an internal showing you tied when other polling shows you ahead?  Unless:

1.) The race really is tied (more likely)

2.) They think PPP is going to show a decent Hagan lead in their NC-Sen. poll release this week (less likely)

Maybe they want to encourage their voters to turn out? It always seems in the interest of every candidate to claim that they are in a close race (and therefore your vote/money/activism/whatever could make the difference).

[backtored]

Also notice the NCGA approval is only at -2; that actually makes the NCGA one of the more popular state legislatures around the country.  

Most polls, though, have it down 2:1 or more.

The PPP poll this next week will be interesting.

[Lief 🗽]

I mean, the sample looks pretty decent, but what exactly is the point of releasing an internal showing you tied when other polling shows you ahead?  Unless:

1.) The race really is tied (more likely)

2.) They think PPP is going to show a decent Hagan lead in their NC-Sen. poll release this week (less likely)

Maybe they want to encourage their voters to turn out? It always seems in the interest of every candidate to claim that they are in a close race (and therefore your vote/money/activism/whatever could make the difference).

Yup, exactly.

"Dear Supporter,

Today I'd like to share with you the results of this EXCLUSIVE internal poll that we are sharing ONLY with our supporters who were loyal enough to give us their email addresses. Beloved Tea Party hero Thom Tillis has surged into a tie with entrenched, America-hating incumbent Hagan. But if you don't donate $20 RIGHT NOW, she and Obama will be able to outspend us and bus literally millions of blacks and immigrants to the poll. Donate NOW or the Democrats will STEAL the election which is SO CLOSE."

[SPQR]

I mean, the sample looks pretty decent, but what exactly is the point of releasing an internal showing you tied when other polling shows you ahead?  Unless:

1.) The race really is tied (more likely)

2.) They think PPP is going to show a decent Hagan lead in their NC-Sen. poll release this week (less likely)

Maybe they want to encourage their voters to turn out? It always seems in the interest of every candidate to claim that they are in a close race (and therefore your vote/money/activism/whatever could make the difference).

Yeah but no one has ever said that the North Carolina race isn't close...

[eric82oslo]

I mean, the sample looks pretty decent, but what exactly is the point of releasing an internal showing you tied when other polling shows you ahead?  Unless:

1.) The race really is tied (more likely)

2.) They think PPP is going to show a decent Hagan lead in their NC-Sen. poll release this week (less likely)

Maybe they want to encourage their voters to turn out? It always seems in the interest of every candidate to claim that they are in a close race (and therefore your vote/money/activism/whatever could make the difference).

Yup, exactly.

"Dear Supporter,

Today I'd like to share with you the results of this EXCLUSIVE internal poll that we are sharing ONLY with our supporters who were loyal enough to give us their email addresses. Beloved Tea Party hero Thom Tillis has surged into a tie with entrenched, America-hating incumbent Hagan. But if you don't donate $20 RIGHT NOW, she and Obama will be able to outspend us and bus literally millions of blacks and immigrants to the poll. Donate NOW or the Democrats will STEAL the election which is SO CLOSE."

OMG. Such a racist, awful message. Who are these people?

America-hating? Really?

[Flake]

I mean, the sample looks pretty decent, but what exactly is the point of releasing an internal showing you tied when other polling shows you ahead?  Unless:

1.) The race really is tied (more likely)

2.) They think PPP is going to show a decent Hagan lead in their NC-Sen. poll release this week (less likely)

Maybe they want to encourage their voters to turn out? It always seems in the interest of every candidate to claim that they are in a close race (and therefore your vote/money/activism/whatever could make the difference).

Yup, exactly.

"Dear Supporter,

Today I'd like to share with you the results of this EXCLUSIVE internal poll that we are sharing ONLY with our supporters who were loyal enough to give us their email addresses. Beloved Tea Party hero Thom Tillis has surged into a tie with entrenched, America-hating incumbent Hagan. But if you don't donate $20 RIGHT NOW, she and Obama will be able to outspend us and bus literally millions of blacks and immigrants to the poll. Donate NOW or the Democrats will STEAL the election which is SO CLOSE."

OMG. Such a racist, awful message. Who are these people?

America-hating? Really?

It's a joke.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I mean, the sample looks pretty decent, but what exactly is the point of releasing an internal showing you tied when other polling shows you ahead?  Unless:

1.) The race really is tied (more likely)

2.) They think PPP is going to show a decent Hagan lead in their NC-Sen. poll release this week (less likely)

Maybe they want to encourage their voters to turn out? It always seems in the interest of every candidate to claim that they are in a close race (and therefore your vote/money/activism/whatever could make the difference).

Yup, exactly.

"Dear Supporter,

Today I'd like to share with you the results of this EXCLUSIVE internal poll that we are sharing ONLY with our supporters who were loyal enough to give us their email addresses. Beloved Tea Party hero Thom Tillis has surged into a tie with entrenched, America-hating incumbent Hagan. But if you don't donate $20 RIGHT NOW, she and Obama will be able to outspend us and bus literally millions of blacks and immigrants to the poll. Donate NOW or the Democrats will STEAL the election which is SO CLOSE."

OMG. Such a racist, awful message. Who are these people?

America-hating? Really?

It's a joke.

Indeed, though it still wouldn't surprise me if something like that was distributed.  Remember that "THERE IS NO GOD!" ad from 2008?    lol