IA-Loras College: Braley+4

[Tender Branson]

45-41 Braley/Ernst

1200 likely voters, September 2-5, 2014. Survey included both landlines (80%) and cell phones (20%). The survey was conducted using live operator interviews through a contracted professional call center.

http://www.loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/c5/c5708672-a96e-4d06-94e6-fc1e49c2ed57.pdf

[windjammer]

I don't know this polling firm. Dem bias?

[Senator Cris]

In June, they had Ernst leads by 6, 48-42.

[backtored]

In June, they had Ernst leads by 6, 48-42.

Yeah, Braley has definitely picked himself off the mat and recovered pretty well.  I always thought that of the four absolute toss-ups--NC, IA, AK, and CO--Iowa was the toughest reach for the GOP. 

[Lief 🗽]

uni poll + decimals = throw it in the garbage

[free my dawg]

I don't know this polling firm. Dem bias?

Last time they had Ernst by 6 so probably not. I don't trust this firm personally.

[Miles]

I'd really like a poll from Selzer & Co.

It seems like they 'know' IA the most, like Marquette 'knows' WI.

[Senator Cris]

IMHO, this race is Tilt D.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Loras College on 2014-09-05

Summary: D: 45%, R: 41%, I: 0%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[IceSpear]

Looks like Loras changed their likely voter screen. Last time they assumed the electorate would be identical to 2010s (obviously ridiculous), this time it says:

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[Vega]

This is what happens when Braley stops making gaffes.

[Lief 🗽]

This is what happens when Braley stops making gaffes.

Let's hope he can go the next two months without once again giving into his compulsive desire to insult farmers.

[Vega]

This is what happens when Braley stops making gaffes.

Let's hope he can go the next two months without once again giving into his compulsive desire to insult farmers.

Had he just played the part of a generic Democrat, he'd be up by at least 6 points right now.

[IceSpear]

This is what happens when Braley stops making gaffes.

Or what happens when you go from a horrible likely voter screen to a suitable one. Or what happens when you compare a poll immediately after a post primary bump to one several months later.

[Vega]

This is what happens when Braley stops making gaffes.

Or what happens when you go from a horrible likely voter screen to a suitable one. Or what happens when you compare a poll immediately after a post primary bump to one several months later.

That all played into it, but his series of gaffes didn't help matters.