|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2020, 12:02:16 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  AR-CNN: Cotton+2
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: AR-CNN: Cotton+2  (Read 1282 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 05, 2014, 06:38:53 am »

Likely voters, Aug. 28-Sept. 2:

49% Cotton (R)
47% Pryor (D)

Link later.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2014, 06:59:31 am »

The link with crosstabs:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/05/cnn.orc.ar.poll.pdf

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2014, 07:00:43 am »

Unlikely that Cotton would improve by this much from RV -> LV.

#LaborDayPolling
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,872
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2014, 07:06:31 am »

Eh, a 2% Cotton lead is what PPP/HC found in July.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2014, 07:18:12 am »

So, this is going to be close?
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 502
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2014, 09:55:49 am »

Cotton will win by at least a few points.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,054
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2014, 10:13:56 am »

That's a weird variance between likely and registered voters. Cotton needs to be up by more than two to win this, because Pryor can easily close that gap.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,872
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2014, 10:20:40 am »

Not new for CNN, as RRH points out.
Logged
10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,697
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2014, 12:32:32 pm »

A lot of these races have been remarkably stable. I'd imagine that unless debates provide a game changer, what we see now may be what we get. Then again, there are September and October surprises.
Logged
Marxist-Cornpopist Thought
SawxDem
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,637
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2014, 12:33:04 pm »

Very, very weird LV screen. Plausible result, but the methodology makes me a little skeptical.
Logged
eric82oslo
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,526
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2014, 12:35:48 pm »

The race goes 11% more Cotton with likely voters? Simply no way in hell for that to happen. At best he might gain 1 to 3 extra points [but with minimum wage on the ballot, likely voters might actually turn out to be more Democratic-friendly than anything].
Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,283
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2014, 05:09:08 pm »

That's a weird variance between likely and registered voters. Cotton needs to be up by more than two to win this, because Pryor can easily close that gap.

Come on now, when you're trailing in a poll, you can't somehow say the other side's the one in danger. 

The LV/RV discrepancy seems odd, but given the fact that Obama's approval is rock-bottom among RVs as well, it seems like a bit of a weird sample.

Still, not good news for Pryor.  The turnout of this race will be R-favored, most likely.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,929


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2014, 09:55:16 pm »

The LV-RV split is 11 points...waaay too large and typical CNN. This race is a dead heat.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.314 seconds with 16 queries.