LA-Rasmussen: Cassidy (R) takes the lead

[Maxwell]

I think Landrieu is the most likely incumbent to get knocked off, if only because of the whole run-off thing.

[Maxwell]

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

He was at the top of the ticket when she won an outright majority in 2008. In fact, she outperformed Barack Obama that year by over 200,000 votes.

2008 was also a wave year for Dems.

[Maxwell]

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

He was at the top of the ticket when she won an outright majority in 2008. In fact, she outperformed Barack Obama that year by over 200,000 votes.

2008 was also a wave year for Dems.

That was also a state that Barack Obama lost by ~20.

It would be one thing to argue if Democrats' performance was inflated in Louisiana due to a wave, but don't pretend like this was the case here.

You're either joking or trolling, but I don't know which.

It was a favorable year for Democrats running no matter the state. Mark Pryor didn't even get an opponent, Kent Conrad won very big, as did Jay Rockefeller, and both of those would've been at risk in a different year.