LA-Rasmussen: Cassidy (R) takes the lead
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  LA-Rasmussen: Cassidy (R) takes the lead
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Author Topic: LA-Rasmussen: Cassidy (R) takes the lead  (Read 3205 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 04, 2014, 09:32:08 AM »

44% Cassidy (R)
41% Landrieu (D)

Link later.

Landrieu loses 5 points, Cassidy gains 1 point compared with Rassy's July poll.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2014, 09:36:00 AM »

> Rassy

Still Pure Toss-Up.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2014, 09:40:33 AM »

From which site you take this numbers? On Rasmussen site, there isn't the poll.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2014, 09:45:33 AM »

From which site you take this numbers? On Rasmussen site, there isn't the poll.

I not sure about Tender, but there's a guy on RRH who's a subscriber and gets the numbers early. Thats how I post Rassy polls here before they're relased.

Anyway, yeah. Tossup + Rassy.
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backtored
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2014, 09:48:41 AM »

Beautiful.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2014, 09:51:21 AM »

It's Rassy Tongue
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backtored
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2014, 09:55:17 AM »


I don't get the whole "oh, it's Rasmussen thing."  Their polling has been pretty much dead even with PPP, Quinnipiac, Survey USA, etc. this election cycle.  I am well aware of their problems in 2012, and so are they, which is probably why they made the adjustments necessary and are producing some pretty legitimate polling.

I suspect that Cassidy really is up three points at this point, which, yes, is wonderful.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2014, 10:12:54 AM »

Considering that a Republican internal had Cassidy down six, I'm not sure that this is all that believable.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2014, 12:57:25 PM »


I don't get the whole "oh, it's Rasmussen thing."  Their polling has been pretty much dead even with PPP, Quinnipiac, Survey USA, etc. this election cycle.  I am well aware of their problems in 2012, and so are they, which is probably why they made the adjustments necessary and are producing some pretty legitimate polling.

I suspect that Cassidy really is up three points at this point, which, yes, is wonderful.

They do produce accurate polling.... when you automatically subtract 3-5% from the Republican candidate. They're consistent though, which is good.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2014, 01:46:53 PM »

GOP house effect without Maness on ballot. Landrieu isnt safe, but by no means she is this endangered.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2014, 01:59:51 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2014, 02:02:31 PM by ModerateVAVoter »

GOP house effect without Maness on ballot. Landrieu isnt safe, but by no means she is this endangered.

...

Okay.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2014, 02:03:08 PM »

GOP house effect without Maness on ballot. Landrieu isnt safe, but by no means she is this endangered.

Which is how it will be on the inevitable runoff.

Even for a Rass poll, this seems about right. I won't trust this poll specifically until Rass is or isn't proven accurate in November, but it is still somewhat telling that Rass is shaping up to be possibly accurate in the face of all the worship of "muh PPP."
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2014, 02:09:14 PM »

Landrieu was leading 48-44 in the other poll. And Cassidy was the worser of the candidates.

I am not counting out Landrieu, she has won close races before.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2014, 02:19:04 PM »

Landrieu was leading 48-44 in the other poll. And Cassidy was the worser of the candidates.

I am not counting out Landrieu, she has won close races before.
Mary Landrieu is the most vulnerable incumbent facing re-election. She needs to hit 50% on November 4th and I simply don't see that happening. And I highly doubt she prevails in a low-turnout runoff, especially if Senate control hangs in balance.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2014, 02:22:12 PM »

Senate control will depend on Oman in KS and AK, NC and La.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2014, 02:25:57 PM »

Landrieu was leading 48-44 in the other poll. And Cassidy was the worser of the candidates.

I am not counting out Landrieu, she has won close races before.
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What about Pryor?

To OC: how is calling it a toss-up, as nearly everyone incling myself is, counting her out? Nobody is saying she is doomed, but calling the race lean D is ridiculous - in fact, an average of the last four non-internal, non-yougov polls gives Cassidy a 2 point edge.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2014, 02:35:45 PM »

I think Landrieu is the most likely incumbent to get knocked off, if only because of the whole run-off thing.
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Never
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« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2014, 02:41:01 PM »

A three point Cassidy lead from a quality pollster would be good news, but this is Rasmussen. While Landrieu is definitely vulnerable, I'm going to wait for a another poll to corroborate these numbers.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2014, 02:46:51 PM »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
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Badger
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« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2014, 03:57:00 PM »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

This.
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Vega
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« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2014, 04:25:50 PM »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

This.

The 04' election was a even worse year for Democrats, yet she still hung on.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2014, 04:29:54 PM »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

This.

The 04' election was a even worse year for Democrats, yet she still hung on.

It was 2002 and the GOP had already regained the Senate by the time her runoff rolled around. Control of the chamber may very well come down to her race.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2014, 05:16:27 PM »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.
Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2014, 05:17:16 PM »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

This.

The 04' election was a even worse year for Democrats, yet she still hung on.

It kills me to say this, but the south and especially states like LA and AR are rapidly trending Republican at the state wide level. They used to love voting for the ' right kind of democrat' , in fact a lot of people probably preferred the moderate to conservative Democrats over the Republican. Unfortunately times have changed and these southern states are going to be monolithically Republican. In 2002 there was still a lot of residual yellow dog Democrat types to put Landrieu across the finish line.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2014, 06:20:34 PM »

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

The last runoff she won was twelve years ago. I used to think the fact that she won the '96 and '02 runoffs she had a good chance of winning one this year, but so much has changed in twelve years I don't think they're comparable situations.
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