Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31 (user search)
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  Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31  (Read 2543 times)
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 52,607


« on: September 02, 2014, 09:13:05 PM »

Ironically, the House isn't thought to be in danger of flipping but the once thought to be safe GOP Senate might. However, a lot people think the GOP might get a net pickup of seats there!

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

There's no reason to be confident of that. The individual dynamics still favor the GOP in the "in play" seats and we are likely to pick up two western seats.
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Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,607


« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2014, 04:29:28 PM »

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

That seems a bit optimistic. From what I've seen, the Senate looks to be tilt/lean R and the House looks to be likely/safeish R

Don't dems only need a 2 seat pickup in the Senate (27-23 split)?

Yep but they're also at risk of losing two western seats. Their candidates in these hot races where they are on the offensive are less than stellar while the GOP has far better nominees (the Delaware county seat features a County Councilman while the new seat in the Poconos features popular, well known State Representative Scavello).

And this election is under the new maps.
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