Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31

[Badger]

But....but decimals!

[Badger]

I don't know why the Obama team wants to visit PA do they think he's still popular there?

Who says he is? Maybe a fundraising dinner which tends to garner less publicity/hackles than a full-bore campaign rally?

[Badger]

Is this going to put the State House and Senate in play?

The Senate is already in play. I don't know enough about the nuances of the House to say for certain on that.

There are 19 seats separating the Democrats and Republican in the Pennsylvania State House, so it's in play, and the Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats - but I don't think it'll be enough to have the Democrats win the majority.

It all depends, though, and the Democrats just need 4 seats to pick up the Senate - which they'll meet and surpass.

That seems a bit optimistic. From what I've seen, the Senate looks to be tilt/lean R and the House looks to be likely/safeish R

Don't dems only need a 2 seat pickup in the Senate (27-23 split)?

[Badger]

^ Isn't it true that the 2012 state legislative elections didn't even take place under the new maps?

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_State_Senate_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

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Do we know if these new maps are more or less gerrymandered than the old ones?

Tough to say. It APPEARS from Ballotpedia (fwiw) that there was some kind of of judicial intervention?

At any rate, Ballotpedia lists 5 races the Democrats are targeting this year; 3 in suburban Philly, and two in the Allentown area. Of them one (Dist 26) is an open seat with a +3 D PVI. Two other districts (6 & 16) have +4 D PVIs, but also long-time GOP incumbents who won by substantial margins in 2010 (though one under 60%).

The other two races don't have their PVI mentioned, though one is a rematch from 2010 where the Democrat challenger lost by almost 30 points, and the other is an open seat around Monroe and northern Northampton counties where the Republican candidate is a long-time state rep from Monroe.

I'd like to hear Phil's take on the races, but Dems seem challenged to take the necessary second seat. No idea off hand about the State House prospects.