Obama should stay the f**k out of PA.
I'd like to see Wolf getting 65%, but with Obama campaigning there it's likely just 55% ...
Realistically, it's extremely unlikely any Republican (even Corbett) will be held under 40% regardless of what Obama does.
Tough to say. It APPEARS from Ballotpedia (fwiw) that there was some kind of of judicial intervention?
At any rate, Ballotpedia lists 5 races the Democrats are targeting this year; 3 in suburban Philly, and two in the Allentown area. Of them one (Dist 26) is an open seat with a +3 D PVI. Two other districts (6 & 16) have +4 D PVIs, but also long-time GOP incumbents who won by substantial margins in 2010 (though one under 60%).
The other two races don't have their PVI mentioned, though one is a rematch from 2010 where the Democrat challenger lost by almost 30 points, and the other is an open seat around Monroe and northern Northampton counties where the Republican candidate is a long-time state rep from Monroe.
I'd like to hear Phil's take on the races, but Dems seem challenged to take the necessary second seat. No idea off hand about the State House prospects.
I actually live in District 26, so luckily my state Senate vote will actually be important.
The Democratic candidate John Kane just released his first ad today. I haven't followed the campaign too closely, but the GOP definitely can't be written off here. The area is still pretty Republican down ballot. Of course, Wolf's potential coattails give a huge question mark to many of these races. He could drag many Dems across the finish line, or he could have basically no coattails like Christie in NJ.
