PA/MT/TN/RI could the dems win all four?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Before you count out Bob Corker, keep in mind that most people in the know around here have all but conceded the nomination to him because of money.  Corker has already raised 3 million and this is all before he writes himself a nice fat multi-million dollar check.  And as if he already didn't have an advantage, Corker also picked up Tennessee's best fundraiser, Kim Kaegi.

I do think that kind of talk is very premature as we haven't really seen a campaign yet, despite the fundraising.  Bryant will throw everything, perhaps including a kitchen sink, at Corker and may very well make something stick.  They're spreading a rumor that Corker is pro-choice around now and I'm getting all kinds of IM's saying "Did you know Bob Corker was pro-abortion?"

The campaign has only hardly begun and Corker hasn't spent a dime yet, so I wouldn't put too much stock into the primary polls until the respective machines get into high gear.

A lot of people think Chafee may lose in a primary, although I haven't seen any polling on this. 

Ford is a longshot to win in TN against Hilleary, who strikes me as a pretty good candidate who has already run statewide.  He would have a close race against Bryant, and would probably defeat Corker...mayors NEVER succeed at getting elected to Senate.

Pennsylvania has been discussed enough already.
As for Montana, Burns would be vulnerable, but I'm not sure the Dems have a good enough candidate available.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Before you count out Bob Corker, keep in mind that most people in the know around here have all but conceded the nomination to him because of money.  Corker has already raised 3 million and this is all before he writes himself a nice fat multi-million dollar check.  And as if he already didn't have an advantage, Corker also picked up Tennessee's best fundraiser, Kim Kaegi.

I do think that kind of talk is very premature as we haven't really seen a campaign yet, despite the fundraising.  Bryant will throw everything, perhaps including a kitchen sink, at Corker and may very well make something stick.  They're spreading a rumor that Corker is pro-choice around now and I'm getting all kinds of IM's saying "Did you know Bob Corker was pro-abortion?"

The campaign has only hardly begun and Corker hasn't spent a dime yet, so I wouldn't put too much stock into the primary polls until the respective machines get into high gear.

It doesn't really matter how much money Corker has, or even how good a candidate he is.  The fact is that mayors never get elected to the US Senate.  Even mayors from huge cities (Bob Anthony, Ron Kirk, Alex Penelas) routinely fail miserably in Senate runs.  They just don't have the statewide network or name ID to jump right into a Senate campaign. 

There are currently four US Senators whose highest previous elected office was mayor.  One was appointed to the Senate (Chafee), and two were nominees for Governor before trying to pull off a Senate run (Feinstein and Coleman). 

The one exception is Luger, who was mayor of Indianapolis in the early 1970's.  How many mayors have run for Senate and failed since them?  I have no idea, but I'd guess it was at least fifty.  If you want to get for Senate, get elected Governor, AG, congressman, or state senator first.

[Sam Spade]

It doesn't really matter how much money Corker has, or even how good a candidate he is.  The fact is that mayors never get elected to the US Senate.  Even mayors from huge cities (Bob Anthony, Ron Kirk, Alex Penelas) routinely fail miserably in Senate runs.  They just don't have the statewide network or name ID to jump right into a Senate campaign. 

There are currently four US Senators whose highest previous elected office was mayor.  One was appointed to the Senate (Chafee), and two were nominees for Governor before trying to pull off a Senate run (Feinstein and Coleman). 

The one exception is Luger, who was mayor of Indianapolis in the early 1970's.  How many mayors have run for Senate and failed since them?  I have no idea, but I'd guess it was at least fifty.  If you want to get for Senate, get elected Governor, AG, congressman, or state senator first.

Ron Kirk was a bad mayor (of Dallas) and an even worse candidate, just as an FYI.

[Keystone Phil]

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I remember about a week before the Election they showed a poll with Kirk and Cornyn at 49% each. I also remember laughing at the TV. Think he'll run again?

[12th Doctor]

Chafee is under pressure from the White House.

Probably the only one on this list the the Dems have over a 50% chance of getting.

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Yeah, Mississippi is getting more liberal too.

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Surely you have no idea what you are talking about.  The fact that the average poll has Casey barely ahead is a sure sign that Santorum has the advantage when this race acctually starts.

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His own people have admited that their internal poll numbers don't look very good.

[Sam Spade]

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I remember about a week before the Election they showed a poll with Kirk and Cornyn at 49% each. I also remember laughing at the TV. Think he'll run again?

Not a chance.  And even if he didn't, there's pretty much no way he could pull more than he did in 2002.

I remember that poll.  Zogby conducted it.  Yet another reason why I'm not confident that Zogby understands how to poll Texas properly.

The only polling company that polled Texas pretty well in 2004 consistently was SurveyUSA, iirc.

[12th Doctor]

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I remember about a week before the Election they showed a poll with Kirk and Cornyn at 49% each. I also remember laughing at the TV. Think he'll run again?

Not a chance.  And even if he didn't, there's pretty much no way he could pull more than he did in 2002.

I remember that poll.  Zogby conducted it.  Yet another reason why I'm not confident that Zogby understands how to poll Texas properly.

The only polling company that polled Texas pretty well in 2004 consistently was SurveyUSA, iirc.

SUSA was probably the most acurate polling agency in 2004.

They were the closest (by margin) in Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, PA, Nevada and Colorado