IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7

[muon2]

Even if you don't like the pollster (and remember this is being commissioned by the more left-leaning paper of the big Chicago dailies) consider that WAA had Durbin up by 15 in late July and about the same double digit spread in June. As Silver has sometimes noted a poll can be useful for seeing trends even if there is a house bias. This also marks the first poll with the Libertarian listed as the only other option since the ballot challenges have ended.

At all levels there's a strong anti-incumbent mood in IL, and it has been intensifying this summer. It's strongest against those with long tenures in office, driven by the year-long attention on the term limits initiative. Durbin's money is likely to keep him up despite the mood of the voters, but I won't be surprised to see this as his closest race yet.

[muon2]

Even if you don't like the pollster (and remember this is being commissioned by the more left-leaning paper of the big Chicago dailies) consider that WAA had Durbin up by 15 in late July and about the same double digit spread in June. As Silver has sometimes noted a poll can be useful for seeing trends even if there is a house bias.

WAA's track record in Illinois is execrable. But as you said, I can certainly see any race where the Dem had an unassailable lead earlier in the year, tighten up by 8 points when people tune in and Republicans coalesce behind their candidate, in particular in a year where Dems are not doing well nationally.

That's not entirely true. On 2012 presidential polling they were right in the middle of the pack by 538's analysis.