IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7 (user search)
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  IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7  (Read 2739 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
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« on: September 02, 2014, 08:12:42 AM »

WAA is always bad and Republican-leaning.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2014, 01:05:05 PM »

Even if you don't like the pollster (and remember this is being commissioned by the more left-leaning paper of the big Chicago dailies) consider that WAA had Durbin up by 15 in late July and about the same double digit spread in June. As Silver has sometimes noted a poll can be useful for seeing trends even if there is a house bias.

WAA's track record in Illinois is execrable. But as you said, I can certainly see any race where the Dem had an unassailable lead earlier in the year, tighten up by 8 points when people tune in and Republicans coalesce behind their candidate, in particular in a year where Dems are not doing well nationally.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2014, 03:51:02 PM »

Four weeks before Election Day on October 2012, they had Tammy Duckworth, Bill Enyart, Brad Schneider, and Bill Foster all losing narrowly in Illinois, and Cheri Bustos ahead by a fraction (she won by 6.6 points).

A few days before Election Day, they adjusted their numbers to get a lot closer to the final on most of the races although they still had Schneider losing and flipped Bustos to losing by 2 points.

Regardless of how they did on Obama-Romney, Nate Silver said that WAA has a Republican house effect. Search here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/
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