IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7 (user search)
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  IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7  (Read 2749 times)
GaussLaw
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Posts: 1,279
« on: August 31, 2014, 09:59:10 PM »

Dick Durbin and Pat Roberts seem kind of in the same boat.  Polling pretty weakly despite being in a strongly partisan state due to bad effects from the current, unpopular governors. 

Both should win though....
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GaussLaw
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Posts: 1,279
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2014, 06:23:43 PM »

Four weeks before Election Day on October 2012, they had Tammy Duckworth, Bill Enyart, Brad Schneider, and Bill Foster all losing narrowly in Illinois, and Cheri Bustos ahead by a fraction (she won by 6.6 points).

A few days before Election Day, they adjusted their numbers to get a lot closer to the final on most of the races although they still had Schneider losing and flipped Bustos to losing by 2 points.

Regardless of how they did on Obama-Romney, Nate Silver said that WAA has a Republican house effect. Search here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/


That was before the 2012 election though.  House effects change every cycle.  That being said, I'd probably peg WAA as a bit R-leaning, but I'd say this:  I don't consider themselves particularly precise (or particularly accurate), so bias is less important than average error here. 

I still maintain that Oberweis is in high single digits/low double digits territory at this point, because of Quinn's unpopularity.
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