IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7
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  IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7
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Author Topic: IL: WAA: Durbin only up 7  (Read 2748 times)
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #25 on: September 02, 2014, 03:19:07 PM »

Even if you don't like the pollster (and remember this is being commissioned by the more left-leaning paper of the big Chicago dailies) consider that WAA had Durbin up by 15 in late July and about the same double digit spread in June. As Silver has sometimes noted a poll can be useful for seeing trends even if there is a house bias.

WAA's track record in Illinois is execrable. But as you said, I can certainly see any race where the Dem had an unassailable lead earlier in the year, tighten up by 8 points when people tune in and Republicans coalesce behind their candidate, in particular in a year where Dems are not doing well nationally.

That's not entirely true. On 2012 presidential polling they were right in the middle of the pack by 538's analysis.



Yeah, in other states they might not be bad, but in Illinois, they're trash.

Obviously it's going to be closer than expected, but Oberweis is not within striking distance.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #26 on: September 02, 2014, 03:37:45 PM »

DURBIN UNDER 50!!!!!!!1!!1       TOSSUP/TILT R!!!!1!!1!!

Google the words "straw-man argument".
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Brittain33
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« Reply #27 on: September 02, 2014, 03:51:02 PM »

Four weeks before Election Day on October 2012, they had Tammy Duckworth, Bill Enyart, Brad Schneider, and Bill Foster all losing narrowly in Illinois, and Cheri Bustos ahead by a fraction (she won by 6.6 points).

A few days before Election Day, they adjusted their numbers to get a lot closer to the final on most of the races although they still had Schneider losing and flipped Bustos to losing by 2 points.

Regardless of how they did on Obama-Romney, Nate Silver said that WAA has a Republican house effect. Search here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/
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KCDem
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« Reply #28 on: September 02, 2014, 07:06:14 PM »

DURBIN UNDER 50!!!!!!!1!!1       TOSSUP/TILT R!!!!1!!1!!

Google the words "straw-man argument".

Google the words: sarcasm and IQ.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #29 on: September 04, 2014, 06:23:43 PM »

Four weeks before Election Day on October 2012, they had Tammy Duckworth, Bill Enyart, Brad Schneider, and Bill Foster all losing narrowly in Illinois, and Cheri Bustos ahead by a fraction (she won by 6.6 points).

A few days before Election Day, they adjusted their numbers to get a lot closer to the final on most of the races although they still had Schneider losing and flipped Bustos to losing by 2 points.

Regardless of how they did on Obama-Romney, Nate Silver said that WAA has a Republican house effect. Search here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/


That was before the 2012 election though.  House effects change every cycle.  That being said, I'd probably peg WAA as a bit R-leaning, but I'd say this:  I don't consider themselves particularly precise (or particularly accurate), so bias is less important than average error here. 

I still maintain that Oberweis is in high single digits/low double digits territory at this point, because of Quinn's unpopularity.
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