VT: Rasmussen: Gov. Shumlin (D) ahead

[smoltchanov]

Far from stellar numbers for Shumlin. And Obama's popularity in state (according to Gallup) is modest 44 too. Would Scott run against Shumlin (instead of preferring to wait) - it would be an extremely interesting race..

[smoltchanov]

What did Phil Scott do to make himself so popular?  In 2010, Shumlin barely won so it's not too surprising that he got in.  But he increased his support from 2010 to 2012.  That's an impressive feat.

He's just been a moderate. Really, he's not done anything special.

I would say - authentic moderate. Sorry, there are few of them in Republican party. And not long ago there were people like Jacob Javits, who was an authentic liberal. Nothing like that now..

[smoltchanov]

Vermonters must think there are two separate republican parties or something, and that the one in vermont is different than the "big" one.

They do, and it is.  I have said this several times: people in upper New England are not overly comfortable with the idea of being loyal Democrats, but they certainly aren't comfortable with the national GOP's catering to social conservatives.  Moderate Republicans can still do quite well in the region.

Agree. Even Milne, who did very little campaigning and is relatively little known, looks at least decent in the last poll. Scott could even be ahead...

[smoltchanov]

Eh, like Mead, I've never had the impression Shumlin was *super* popular. He barely won in 2010 and underperformed Obama a lot in 2012.

2010 was very good Republican year and his opponent was sitting Lt. Governor. But, yes, it seems he isn't too popular. Only "general" strong Democratic leanings of Vermont put him out of danger so far..