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  Kansas: Survey USA: Roberts + 5
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Author Topic: Kansas: Survey USA: Roberts + 5  (Read 2914 times)
KCDem
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« on: August 26, 2014, 08:37:05 pm »

Pat Roberts (R): 37
Chad Taylor (D): 32
Greg Orman (I): 20
Randall Batson (L): 4

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=626056fa-eaed-4161-8c4b-c6e0a8f7c687&c=243
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2014, 08:38:04 pm »
« Edited: August 26, 2014, 08:40:00 pm by IDS Legislator Maxwell »

Holy Carp. Look at that. The PPP poll was right about Orman.

Also Kobach is tied at 46-46. Brownback may have some real negative coat tails.
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xavier110
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2014, 09:00:22 pm »

So, at this point, are new Orman voters Roberts or Taylor defectors? This could prove interesting - I'd love to see a 33-33-33 race in Kansas, lol!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2014, 09:04:31 pm »

Wow, I guess this really is a race now. Who would've expected this a month ago?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2014, 09:09:10 pm »

So, at this point, are new Orman voters Roberts or Taylor defectors? This could prove interesting - I'd love to see a 33-33-33 race in Kansas, lol!

The majority of them are certainly Roberts defectors. When is the last time we saw a republican lead by less than 10 in Kansas for a Senate race?
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2014, 09:20:51 pm »

Holy Carp. Look at that. The PPP poll was right about Orman.

My first thought, too.

The PPP poll really seemed bizarre to me, but looks like thats how the race is really shaping up.
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xavier110
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2014, 09:28:48 pm »
« Edited: August 26, 2014, 09:41:07 pm by xavier110 »

So, at this point, are new Orman voters Roberts or Taylor defectors? This could prove interesting - I'd love to see a 33-33-33 race in Kansas, lol!

The majority of them are certainly Roberts defectors. When is the last time we saw a republican lead by less than 10 in Kansas for a Senate race?

Well, the majority of the ones already saying they're for Orman would be Roberts voters normally. What I'm asking is, if Orman rises, who bleeds more - Roberts or Taylor? At this point, I think there won't be many more Roberts defectors (at least a massive chunk of that 37% must be pretty damn conservative and would never consider Orman - though the crosstabs suggest that Orman has weirdly universal appeal among the ideologies)
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2014, 10:41:56 pm »

ITS HAPPENING!!111!!!
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○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2014, 10:43:53 pm »

LOL, can you imagine if Kansas saves the Democratic majority?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2014, 01:15:11 am »

LOL, can you imagine if Kansas or Georgia saves the Democratic majority?
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Knives
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« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2014, 04:20:05 am »

LOL, can you imagine if Kansas saves the Democratic majority?

That would be the most hilarious event ever.
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backtored
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2014, 10:14:42 am »

I don't think that Orman will keep all of these Roberts defectors.  What worries me is that they'll simply stay home.  That may not hurt Roberts, who will probably win even without Tea Party help.  But it'll really hurt Brownback, who needs his base to have a realistic shot at winning.  He's down by 8 in the SUSA-Gov poll, which is absolutely overcome-able in a state like Kansas--but not if a significant number of Tea Party Republicans stay home.

If Kansas goes blue, it is only because of division on the right.  But they're close enough to Colorado to know that sometimes that makes all the difference.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2014, 10:43:04 am »

Ormanmentum!
Lol if the Republicans can't win a majority because they couldn't keep freaking Kansas.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2014, 12:33:59 pm »

Republicans can really only go up from here - this would probably be a horse-race in a head-to-head due to Republican dissatisfaction. As it stands, if Roberts isn't losing now, he's not going to lose in November.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2014, 04:01:00 pm »

Republicans can really only go up from here - this would probably be a horse-race in a head-to-head due to Republican dissatisfaction. As it stands, if Roberts isn't losing now, he's not going to lose in November.

In the head to head with Roberts v.s. Orman, Roberts is losing right now though. IF (and only if) Taylor can be persuaded to drop out, this would immediately turn to a toss-up.
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KCDem
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2014, 07:35:33 pm »

Republicans can really only go up from here - this would probably be a horse-race in a head-to-head due to Republican dissatisfaction. As it stands, if Roberts isn't losing now, he's not going to lose in November.

I disagree. If Orman can get the Republicans that vote for Paul Davis in the Governor's race and Taylor consolidates a little more the Democratic vote, then I could see him slipping by with a plurality. I don't think we can say that the Republicans can only go up from here when Robert's opponents haven't defined themselves yet. Three-way races are volatile and I wouldn't draw any far reaching conclusions just yet.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2014, 09:32:59 am »

Saboto is moving KS Sen from Safe to Likely R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2014, 09:49:10 am »


Funnily enough, last night I changed Ohio and Iowa on my Atlas prediction from lean R to strong R...I'm not Larry Sabato, I swear.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2014, 09:55:41 am »


Funnily enough, last night I changed Ohio and Iowa on my Atlas prediction from lean R to strong R...I'm not Larry Sabato, I swear.

Yeah, looks like you don't have KY as Strong R Wink
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2014, 08:41:25 am »

The New Yorker writes: "The Republican incumbent, Pat Roberts, is heartily disliked by Kansas voters: his approval rate is only twenty-seven per cent, even lower than the thirty-three per cent who approve of President Obamas performance. Roberts, who is in his third term, recently survived a primary challenge by the radiologist Milton Wolf. Dr. Wolf ran under the Tea Party banner and gained attention for posting gruesome X-ray images of gunshot victims on his Facebook page that were accompanied by macabre banter with his friends. Still, Robertss margin over Wolf was only forty-eight per cent to forty-one per cent. It seems that Kansas voters will seriously consider just about anyone but Roberts."

6 percent more disliked than Obama, in Kansas - take that Teabaggers. Tongue

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/independent-kansas-swing-senate
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #20 on: August 30, 2014, 01:29:44 pm »

Obama should resign the presidency, move to Kansas, and run for Senate.
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Vega
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« Reply #21 on: August 30, 2014, 01:47:27 pm »

Obama should resign the presidency, move to Kansas, and run for Senate.

That'd be wicked cool. Roberts v. Obama.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2014, 06:50:21 pm »

Taylor would be foolish to drop out. Ultimately it is more likely that Orman's numbers will drop on Election Day, not Taylor's.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2014, 07:12:05 pm »

You know, Roberts is still leading by 5...

It will be closer than it should, but Roberts is still ahead.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2014, 11:55:24 am »


Charlie Cook acted similarly, moving the race from Solid R to Likely R. For those that aren't aware, Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Obviously, I'd love to see Democrats take this seat, but the reality is that this is still Kansas we're talking about. It's one of the most historically Republican states in the country.
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