Sen. Conrad Burns (MT) approval rating at 49%...

[Moooooo]

A new DSCC poll finds Burns has only a 49% positive job performance rating, with 47% giving him negative ratings. Fewer than 50% report positive views on his likeability as well.

Unsurprisingly, with those numbers only 36% of voters are saying they will definitely or probably vote for him, while 27% will definitely or probably vote against him.

Even if these numbers are a bit skewed because they are DSCC, this is a race.

MOE plus-or-minus 4%

http://leftinthewest.com/index.php?p=542

[Moooooo]

I know, I know, its a DSCC poll.  Still, I have a weird feeling that a Democrat is going to win this seat in 2006.

[Jake]

If they get a good candidate, they could win.

[Sam Spade]

Hope springs eternal. 

Keystone Phil also thinks the Republicans are going to pick up 5 seats. 

Hope springs eternal there also. 

Obviously, the reminders I would give out about partisan polls still stand, though I'm pretty sure you realize that too.

Frankly, right now I don't trust any polls that come out, partisan or not.  We are still a year and a half away from elections.

[TheresNoMoney]

Democrats are gaining a ton of ground in Montana. This seat will be competitive.

Dems need to get either this seat or the open Tennessee seat (I'd prefer to get the Montana seat).

[AuH2O]

Democrats could win, but so could the GOP in Wisconsin. It depends on the candidate.

[Moooooo]

Democrats could win, but so could the GOP in Wisconsin. It depends on the candidate.

It depends if Kohl retires. Unless, you believe Thompson could beat Kohl?

[Alcon]

The Dems may yet get this - the Montana Democratic Party has been doing very well lately. It depends on the candidates, but it will probably be close. I'll be watching this closely.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Schweitzer made it close in 2000. Burns has some DeLay style scandal of screwing Indian tribes of millions of dollars.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050402/NEWS01/504020308/1002

[ian]

I don't mean to disagree or be pessimistic, but really, I can't see us beating Burns.  Is it a possibility that Baucus runs for the seat and Schweitzer appoints another Democrat to the vacated Baucus seat?  That would be utterly ridiculous.
No one can really run for that seat and win, I'm afraid.  We ran out of opportunities when Schweitzer ran for gov, unless someone in the state senate is uber-popular...?  Anybody care to comment on possible opponents.

[Keystone Phil]

Keystone Phil also thinks the Republicans are going to pick up 5 seats. 

Around this time in 2003, I was thinking about 56 GOP Senators after the 2004 elections. How many would have thought we'd come so close to that?