KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback (user search)
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  KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback (search mode)
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Author Topic: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback  (Read 5236 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: August 19, 2014, 04:28:25 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 04:35:52 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 05:54:41 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 07:04:11 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Ok, bro. Whatever makes you sleep at night...

Tell me about it. Whoever holds the Governor's mansion in a state no where near mine was really keeping me up at night until I convinced myself that Brownback would prevail.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2014, 08:57:35 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters

I mean, if you simply assert that he "will be in the lead" without backing it up and tell people to "get a grip," implying that one must be delusional to think that a candidate consistently up in the polls could win, you can expect that sort of response. I agree that it tends to be overused (based on what I've seen so far) and that a few wrong predictions shouldn't completely undermine what one has to say, but you could definitely be a bit more pragmatic about how you say it given the circumstances.

See, the problem with this response is that it ignores the fact that I have backed it up with comments other than, "Get a grip" but yes, that comment still applies.

And Obama and Brownback aren't "equally hated," IceSpear. Get real. Almost the same approval, sure. But if you ask most Kansans who they dislike more strongly, you're obviously going to have most people respond with, "Obama." Hands down.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2014, 09:17:35 PM »

I apologize for being so adamantly right.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2014, 09:25:59 PM »

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.

A "small lead" for Obama. In a safe GOP state, you really think Brownback is that viciously hated that Obama would only have a "small lead" in the "Disliked More" category. Oh man.

P.S. - Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006. Obama wasn't on the ballot in 2010.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2014, 09:59:52 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.

"You know, Russia is the largest country by land mass on the planet." - Phil
"JUST LYK SANTORUM WAS GONNA WIN, RITE PHIL?!1!1!" - unoriginal posters

Seriously guys, give it a rest. Phil has made LOTS of bad predictions beyond Santorum.

No more than almost any other poster here. Roll Eyes

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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2014, 10:02:02 PM »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.

Not a "reasonable" point? He's down by two in a PPP poll, for Christ's sake. You seriously believe it's unreasonable for him to be ahead by October in Kansas? You said something earlier about someone being sad and pathetic but I think you had the target of the comment wrong...
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Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2014, 04:58:53 PM »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.

Not a "reasonable" point? He's down by two in a PPP poll, for Christ's sake. You seriously believe it's unreasonable for him to be ahead by October in Kansas? You said something earlier about someone being sad and pathetic but I think you had the target of the comment wrong...

2 in PPP with the libertarian, 5 in PPP's head to head without the libertarian, 8 in SurveyUSA, and 10 in Rasmussen.

Oh, now they want to count Rasmussen! Roll Eyes

Regardless, that and SurveyUSA were taken before the Great Boom-back.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2014, 05:08:07 PM »

Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2014, 06:47:18 PM »

Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.

Oh please. You'd call someone a Dem hack if they said Quinn would win easily using the same logic.

No, I'd call them that because they'd be wrong.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2014, 07:38:39 PM »

Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.

Oh please. You'd call someone a Dem hack if they said Quinn would win easily using the same logic.

No, I'd call them that because they'd be wrong.

Okay, what makes the Quinn and Brownback situations different then? Both are bad governors with bad approval ratings around the same percentages. Both are consistently down in polls by similar margins to their strong-but-not-superb general election challengers, but both aren't completely dead due to the partisan leanings of their states. And finally, hacks from both parties insist they will win Smiley

And don't use precedent of Republican Governors if Illinois, because if I used Sebelius as precedent in Kansas you would (justifiably) laugh at me.

I've explained this now about three times: GOP enthusiasm in a safe GOP state carries GOP Governor to victory. Dems are not half as motivated this year to drag their scandal-plagued Governor with far more baggage across the finish line in Illinois.

Give me a shout about seven posts from now when I have to explain it again.
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Keystone Phil
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Posts: 52,611


« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2014, 07:19:16 AM »

And the claim by Icespear checks out.

Just for the record: that has never been in dispute. I don't deny the prediction. Never have. I think my second to last sentence is one of the most telling of the entire post, unsurprisingly always ignored by the crowd of people that just want to hold up my wrong prediction for a laugh or to prove some point.

To be fair, that makes my post much less of a prediction but people won't even give me hell for that. That's much less entertaining for them then saying what they say now.
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