KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 07:37:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: KS: Public Policy Polling: Davis narrowly leads, Umbehr helps Brownback  (Read 5252 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: August 19, 2014, 04:24:19 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 04:30:50 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 04:38:40 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Yeah, just like Santorum.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 07:11:00 PM »

Looks like Kansas is ready to flush Brownback down the toilet where he belongs.

He's now trailing by two when a poll last week or so showed him down over double digits and you think it looks like he'll be flushed? Ok.

You're comparing apples and oranges (two different pollsters). The fact is, everybody besides YouGov has shown Davis in the lead.

Brownback will be in the lead by October. Get a grip.

Ok, bro. Whatever makes you sleep at night...

Tell me about it. Whoever holds the Governor's mansion in a state no where near mine was really keeping me up at night until I convinced myself that Brownback would prevail.

Are you implying Corbett's likely loss DOES keep you up at night then? Wink
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2014, 08:43:19 PM »

Brownback is at 34-55 approval, Obama is at 33-59. Considering they're almost equally as hated, I doubt Brownback's "muh Obama" strategy is going to work. At least McConnell actually has some type of connection to Obama since he'd be the potential majority leader, but Brownback trying to use it is just sad considering he's been governor for 4 years and all he has to run on is hatred of the incumbent president.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2014, 09:18:53 PM »

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2014, 09:37:52 PM »

I'm curious about the real numbers for that. Might be a question worth asking in their next poll.

Agreed. I'd actually anticipate it being somewhat close, probably with a small lead for Obama. But unfortunately for Brownback, Obama isn't on the ballot and he is.

A "small lead" for Obama. In a safe GOP state, you really think Brownback is that viciously hated that Obama would only have a "small lead" in the "Disliked More" category. Oh man.

P.S. - Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006. Obama wasn't on the ballot in 2010.

Uh, yes? Maybe not small overall, but small relative to what one would expect. It wouldn't take very many "crossovers" to keep it within single digits, for instance.

And governor's races have a very different dynamic from congressional races. Most people tend to run on their plans for the state or their accomplishments as governor, whereas congressional races tend to be more about national issues. Now, obviously that template won't work for Brownback since he is a miserable failure that is currently losing despite being an incumbent Republican governor and former Senator in a ruby red state and has an approval rating almost as bad as the black incumbent Democratic president. But I doubt people are going to be as receptive to the argument in this case.

It's easy to be popular when all you have to do is sit around vote "no" on everything like Brownback did as Senator, but as he's finding out, when you actually have to force your right wing agenda down the throats of people, even a conservative state like Kansas isn't buying what he's selling. "Quick! Over there! Obama! Boo!". That's all he has left. He thinks he's still a Senator, and it's sad and pathetic.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2014, 05:51:20 PM »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2014, 04:51:38 PM »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.

Not a "reasonable" point? He's down by two in a PPP poll, for Christ's sake. You seriously believe it's unreasonable for him to be ahead by October in Kansas? You said something earlier about someone being sad and pathetic but I think you had the target of the comment wrong...

2 in PPP with the libertarian, 5 in PPP's head to head without the libertarian, 8 in SurveyUSA, and 10 in Rasmussen.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2014, 05:05:01 PM »

Well, I will defend Phil (although Badger's posts are really great).

Firstly, the "SANTORUM WILL WIN BLABLA",
Phil said that exactly:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
He clearly said that Casey could beat him, but Phil didn't believe Casey was going to run.

Phil wasn't really wrong on santorum's chances, he was wrong on the fact that Casey wasn't going to run. That's not a critical mistake. He doesn't deserve to be mocked by that 10 years after this event.

So seriously, dismissing Phil's opinion because of "Santorum will win" is really weird.

--------------------

Then, Phil has indeed a rep bia, because he's a republican. That's totally normal. I have a dem bia, most of the democrats have a bia,...
But his opinion is articulate. So please, respect at least what he says, and if you disagree with him, take time to answer to him respectfully and not saying "Santorum will win", Badger did that well flr instance, his answer was articulate.

This situation just shows how dem biased is this forum.


----------------
Now I will give my opinion of that.

I wouldn't be so confident than Phil, but he's indeed right. The republicans are going to win here, Davis' lead has been reduced extremely quickly, and Kansas is one of the reddest state in the country historically speaking.

The KS swing voter is probably tmthforu, and he will probably vote for the reps, like Bacon King's family is a good indication for Georgia, tmthforu represents well the swing voters of his state Tongue.

Uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure his official prediction (as in, right before the election) was that Santorum would beat Casey, something that was obviously not going to happen, and it wasn't even close. And saying "Brownback will lead by October, get a grip" is not a reasonable or articulate point.

Not a "reasonable" point? He's down by two in a PPP poll, for Christ's sake. You seriously believe it's unreasonable for him to be ahead by October in Kansas? You said something earlier about someone being sad and pathetic but I think you had the target of the comment wrong...

2 in PPP with the libertarian, 5 in PPP's head to head without the libertarian, 8 in SurveyUSA, and 10 in Rasmussen.

Oh, now they want to count Rasmussen! Roll Eyes

Regardless, that and SurveyUSA were taken before the Great Boom-back.

I've never completely disregarded Rasmussen, I just take their polls with a grain of salt, so not sure what you're referring to. The fact of the matter is that Davis is ahead in every single poll but one. You're entitled to audaciously state that Brownback will win easily despite this, but don't be surprised if past audaciously wrong predictions are brought up in comparison.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2014, 05:21:16 PM »

Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.

Oh please. You'd call someone a Dem hack if they said Quinn would win easily using the same logic.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2014, 06:54:19 PM »

Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.

Oh please. You'd call someone a Dem hack if they said Quinn would win easily using the same logic.

Agreed- I'd tend to put Quinn and Brown in the same position. Both bad Governors who are very unpopular in their states, consistently down in polls but not completely dead due to the partisanship of their states. I'm sure Phil will find some reason why it's different though Smiley

Looks like you overestimated him. Wink
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2014, 07:26:01 PM »

Stop acting like it's late October and Davis has led in every poll of the real election season. Your disingenuousness is frustrating.

Oh please. You'd call someone a Dem hack if they said Quinn would win easily using the same logic.

No, I'd call them that because they'd be wrong.

Okay, what makes the Quinn and Brownback situations different then? Both are bad governors with bad approval ratings around the same percentages. Both are consistently down in polls by similar margins to their strong-but-not-superb general election challengers, but both aren't completely dead due to the partisan leanings of their states. And finally, hacks from both parties insist they will win Smiley

And don't use precedent of Republican Governors if Illinois, because if I used Sebelius as precedent in Kansas you would (justifiably) laugh at me.

"muh gop wave"
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 14 queries.