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  GA-SurveyUSA: Gov. Deal (R) opens up lead
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Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA: Gov. Deal (R) opens up lead  (Read 1197 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 19, 2014, 05:26:10 AM »

48% Nathan Deal (R)
39% Jason Carter (D)
  4% Andrew Hunt (L)
  8% Undecided

...

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democratic challenger Connie Stokes, 52% to 36%. Cagle holds 90% of the Republican base.

In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democratic challenger Doreen Carter 53% to 36%. Carter trails by 9 points among women.

In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democratic challenger Greg Hecht, 49% to 36%. Hecht has a 5-point advantage among lower-income voters, but he is overpowered by Olens among middle-income and upper-income voters.

In an election today for State School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods defeats Democrat Valarie Wilson 51% to 39%. Among voters who support the "Common Core" school standards, the Democrat Wilson leads 2:1. Among those who oppose Common Core, the Republican Woods leads 6:1.

...

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of Georgia adults 08/14/14 through 08/17/14.

Of the adults, 953 were registered to vote.

Of those registered to vote, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c649d925-5e23-4406-a545-30cf95234a33
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 05:53:41 AM »

It's........... not happening. Sad


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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 06:27:13 AM »

The recent trend is worrisome, but I'll just point the following out:

Poll: 52% Male, 48% Female
2010: 55% Female, 45% Male

Poll: "Atlanta" (metro) - 34% of sample
Size of state: 45%

Poll: 35-49 = Deal 55, Carter 32 (biggest lead of any age group)
2008: 30-44 = Martin 52, Chambliss 45; Obama 56, McCain 44

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 06:51:31 AM »

Oh. Reality makes an appearance again.
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Badger
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2014, 05:21:51 PM »

The recent trend is worrisome, but I'll just point the following out:

Poll: 52% Male, 48% Female
2010: 55% Female, 45% Male

Poll: "Atlanta" (metro) - 34% of sample
Size of state: 45%

Poll: 35-49 = Deal 55, Carter 32 (biggest lead of any age group)
2008: 30-44 = Martin 52, Chambliss 45; Obama 56, McCain 44



Even if one re-weights the poll as suggested, Carter's still in a world of hurt.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2014, 01:47:12 AM »

The recent trend is worrisome, but I'll just point the following out:

Poll: 52% Male, 48% Female
2010: 55% Female, 45% Male

Poll: "Atlanta" (metro) - 34% of sample
Size of state: 45%

Poll: 35-49 = Deal 55, Carter 32 (biggest lead of any age group)
2008: 30-44 = Martin 52, Chambliss 45; Obama 56, McCain 44



Even if one re-weights the poll as suggested, Carter's still in a world of hurt.

Unless I erred and did double-math, it's potentially a 11-point margin shift.

Age Group: 21-point swing in 25% of electorate, adjusted: 5.2 points
Region: 44-point swing in 11% of electorate, adjusted 4.8 points
Gender: 11-point swing in 7% of electorate, adjusted: 0.8 points
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Free Bird
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2014, 04:40:20 PM »

Oh. Reality makes an appearance again.
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