WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker (user search)
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  WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker  (Read 3161 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: August 15, 2014, 04:53:16 PM »



Lean R/Lean D!
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2014, 05:20:39 PM »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2014, 05:51:36 PM »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2014, 06:07:46 PM »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's learn R because the fundamentals favor Walker. Obama is unpopular, it's a midterm, and Democratic turnout will be down. If the race were tied going into election day, he'd be my bet.

But the fundamentals are already baked into the polls. In fact, Marquette's LV screen showed Burke doing better among LVs than RVs. I'd probably narrowly give the win to Walker as well if I had to predict, but his slight advantage is not really worthy of the "lean" label, at least in my opinion.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2014, 04:34:06 PM »

Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.
Lean R =/= a strong advantage. It means he's a slight favorite.

Depends on one's definition of the term. I could see this being described as "lean R" if one refuses to ever use the term "toss up".
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