NM: Research & Polling Inc: Gov. Martinez (R) up 9
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 04, 2024, 02:48:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  NM: Research & Polling Inc: Gov. Martinez (R) up 9
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Gov. Martinez (R) up 9  (Read 1450 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 17, 2014, 07:28:45 AM »

New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Research & Polling Inc on 2014-08-14

Summary: D: 41%, R: 50%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2014, 07:36:25 AM »

Yepp.

54-45 is something I could see Martinez winning with.
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,613
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2014, 07:38:57 AM »

No senate poll?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2014, 07:40:08 AM »


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wink
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,842
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2014, 07:49:09 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Worthless.
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,928


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2014, 09:55:32 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Worthless.

So the poll screen is even more restrictive than those who voted in 2010, HA! Joke poll.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2014, 10:14:56 AM »

FWIW, how she performed in 2010 with their regional breakdowns:

1: 53/47
2: 57/43
3: 38/62
4: 71/29
5: 53/47
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,050
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2014, 01:12:31 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Worthless.

So the poll screen is even more restrictive than those who voted in 2010, HA! Joke poll.
Logged
NHLiberal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 790


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2014, 01:57:39 PM »

Yeah, clearly this poll is screwed, but I also think the one showing a tie was off too. Realistically right now Martinez is leading by 4-6-- still a popular incumbent Governor but has made a few missteps-- but I think she'll end up winning by more than that, not on her own merits but because Gary King right now is basically Generic D and will end up being worse than that.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,842
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2014, 06:54:09 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Worthless.

So the poll screen is even more restrictive than those who voted in 2010, HA! Joke poll.

It seems it's becoming a trend for pollsters to use their LV screen as "did you vote in 2010?". Of course, nobody expects a 2008/2012 like electorate to turn out, but it's certainly not going to be a 2010 electorate either.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,172
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2014, 12:11:59 AM »

In Austria, pollsters ask people if they are "certain, likely, unlikely or very unlikely to vote" in the next election.

Turnout finally almost always matches the "certain to vote" figure, while the ones who say they are "likely, unlikely or very unlikely" are staying at home.

For example, in the 2013 federal election 70-78% said they are "certain" to vote, final turnout then was 75%.

Don't know if this is the case in the US as well, but pollsters should ask all registered voters if they are "certain" to vote in the mid-terms and only use these people for likely voter samples.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2014, 01:12:21 PM »

It feels like she's up 20 on the ground.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,962


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2014, 12:01:34 AM »

Yepp.

54-45 is something I could see Martinez winning with.

Yep, maybe similar to her 2010 result 53-47.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.232 seconds with 13 queries.