Marist/McClatchy Poll: Hillary's lead over GOPers shrinks
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  Marist/McClatchy Poll: Hillary's lead over GOPers shrinks
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Author Topic: Marist/McClatchy Poll: Hillary's lead over GOPers shrinks  (Read 1097 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 14, 2014, 05:55:11 AM »



METHODOLOGY

This survey of 1,035 adults was conducted Aug. 4 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with McClatchy. People 18 and older who live in the continental U.S. were interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Landline numbers were randomly selected based on a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation from ASDE Survey Sampler Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. This sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cellphone numbers from Survey Sampling International. The two samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2010 census results for age, gender, income, race and region. Respondents in the household were selected by asking for the youngest male. Results are statistically significant within plus or minus 3 percentage points. There are 806 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There are 342 Republicans and Republican leaning independents. The error margin for this subset is plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/08/13/236368/clintons-lead-over-gop-candidates.html
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King
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2014, 07:53:35 AM »

Respondents in the household were selected by asking for the youngest male.

Is this a normal practice?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2014, 01:04:24 PM »

Respondents in the household were selected by asking for the youngest male.

Is this a normal practice?

Strange. I could see why they would go after the youngest, since they're the hardest to reach, but why males specifically?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2014, 01:06:30 PM »

How do they poll females then??
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King
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2014, 01:12:20 PM »

Only lesbians, widows, and the cast of Girls are polled.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2014, 09:40:14 AM »

48% against all opponents is pretty damn good at this point though.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2014, 10:51:20 PM »

The two samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2010 census results for age, gender, income, race and region. Respondents in the household were selected by asking for the youngest male.

Hmm
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2014, 05:01:51 AM »

This is a very weak showing for Paul and a strong one for Christie.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2014, 07:48:50 PM »

This sentence accompanies other Marist polls, as well; it's not a typo.

The issue is that in households with landlines, women disproportionately pick up the family phone, and old people pick up their phone more too. So a sample based just on who picks up the phone will be biased towards older females. They try to counteract this by asking for the youngest male. It's not that they only poll younger males; they still conduct the poll if the youngest male is out or whatever. So there are plenty of older women in the poll.

Nobody's sample exactly matches the population, which is why pollsters weight the sample by demographics. But they have these schemes to try to make the initial sample as representative as they can get, to minimize the amount of weighting required.
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