How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed?
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Author Topic: How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed?  (Read 14769 times)
DS0816
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« Reply #50 on: October 04, 2014, 09:09:03 PM »
« edited: October 04, 2014, 09:13:01 PM by DS0816 »

Hillary Clinton would have won a higher popular-vote margin than the D+7.26 carried by Barack Obama in Election 2008.

Obama received nationally 49 percent of the male vote (to the 48 percent for John McCain), and he received nationally 56 percent from the female vote. Percentages of support for Hillary Clinton would have been higher with both counts, and she probably would have reached 60 percent of the female vote nationwide. The male vote would have come to at least 51 percent (and it may have been more close to 55 percent).

A lot of this depends on a difference in the campaigns; this is with respect to a different scenario. Pennyslvania and Minnesota were the only two "Blue Firewall" states that a 2008 Obama did not carry more than 5 points above his national margin. His lowest, Wisconsin, was more than 6.50 above his national number. An alternative, for Hillary Clinton, might have been to not excessively run up those numbers (as was the case with Obama) but to succeed in pulling in more state while having won the U.S. Popular Vote, in a Democratic pickup, by more than 10 percentage points.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #51 on: October 05, 2014, 12:58:48 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2014, 01:03:53 PM by Skill and Chance »

Probably this:



She wouldn't lead in VA and CO until after the financial crisis.  The national PV would be a bit stronger for her, about 55%/43%.

But she would probably be in a lot more trouble in 2012 because her coalition wouldn't tolerate the work of the Dem trifecta in 2009-10 as well as Obama's coalition did:



That would be about a 50%/49% win for her over Romney.
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DS0816
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« Reply #52 on: October 05, 2014, 11:49:15 PM »

I happen to believe that for example a John McCain/Joe Lieberman ticket stands a great chance of defeating either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in 2008. Joe Biden and Joe Lieberman on the same stage for example is a lot different than Joe Biden and Sarah Palin.

You're delusional.
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