KS: Rasmussen: After primary, Sen. Roberts (R) in trouble

[Keystone Phil]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

[Keystone Phil]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

[Keystone Phil]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

We already lead with Jason Carter in Ga, while Nunn can still win. The Deal scandle speaks for itself. The GOP is 10 pts down in KS,

Thanks for:

A) totally irrelevant information (Carter will also lose, by the way).
B) regurgitating information about KS now.

[Keystone Phil]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

I see where you're coming from and it's definitely possible that it will turn out that way, but since Dems are just (or almost) as disgusted by the GOP as Republicans are with Obama and the Dems, shouldn't that by your logic mean that Malloy and Quinn should also be safe (or at least not trailing)?

...no because Dems have been proven to be not nearly as motivated as Republicans to turn out this year.

[Keystone Phil]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

I see where you're coming from and it's definitely possible that it will turn out that way, but since Dems are just (or almost) as disgusted by the GOP as Republicans are with Obama and the Dems, shouldn't that by your logic mean that Malloy and Quinn should also be safe (or at least not trailing)?

...no because Dems have been proven to be not nearly as motivated as Republicans to turn out this year.

Except we're at the point now in which LV models are being used. I'm not saying this poll is accurate, but you don't get to dismiss every recent poll of one or more races because "Dems have been proven to be not nearly as motivated as Republicans to turn out" when we're using Likely Voter models.

Ok, it's the very beginning point of when LV is legitimately factored into polling. It isn't even Labor Day yet. Let's compare the results now to an LV poll in October. Guarantee it will be significantly different.

And I was saying the Quinn and Malloy examples aren't applicable because the "Dems hate Republicans just as much so they'll be just as motivated" idea just doesn't match general GOP enthusiasm. That's in no way reflect in IL or CT polling. Those races will see the Dems lose significant support because yes, they're that bad but also because turnout simply isn't in their favor.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, it's the very beginning point of when LV is legitimately factored into polling. It isn't even Labor Day yet. Let's compare the results now to an LV poll in October. Guarantee it will be significantly different.

And I was saying the Quinn and Malloy examples aren't applicable because the "Dems hate Republicans just as much so they'll be just as motivated" idea just doesn't match general GOP enthusiasm. That's in no way reflect in IL or CT polling. Those races will see the Dems lose significant support because yes, they're that bad but also because turnout simply isn't in their favor.

And Sarkozy will be reelected.

And he was two points away from that. How many wrong predictions have you ever made, King Troll? None? Ever? Surely you've gotten every prediction right otherwise you wouldn't repeat my incorrect predictions ad nauseam.

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

Is there an election since 2006 where Republicans haven't been "riled up"? The race is hardly over of course, but surely you too see Davis being over 50% in a Rassy poll as a sign of serious danger?

Surely you don't think Republicans were more motivated than Dems to vote in a year like 2008...

And turnout in 2012 generally favored Dems for an obvious reason: Presidential election year.

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And while that's absolutely historically true, I do believe that in a more hyper partisan world that these typically less partisan races result in party members returning home in large numbers. And when turnout will unquestionably favor the GOP in a year like this (midterm + national climate)...

[Keystone Phil]

"More" motivated in 08? I'm not necessarily sure about that, but there was no lack of enthusiasm among GOP voters then, even if it was primarily inspired by very deep fear/mistrust/loathing of Obama rather than strong affection towards McCain (not unlike the feelings that spurred GOP enthusiasm in 2010, and are relied on to do so again this year).

Find polling from 2008. Guarantee Dems are found to be more enthusiastic and turned out in larger numbers than Republicans. And that's what I'm talking about this year: enthusiasm and turnout of one side easily besting the other side. And in that type of environment in a more highly partisan country (it's not Sebelius 2002 anymore, folks) in a fairly safe GOP state (sorry, Lief!), I think there's a very strong argument for voters "coming home" to Brownback.   

Even if that wasn't the case, you really don't believe enthusiasm from 2008 matched that of 2010...right?

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No, not hubris! Just confidence in what is obviously correct!