KS: Rasmussen: After primary, Sen. Roberts (R) in trouble

[NHLiberal]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

I'm curious, what exactly leads you to believe that Brownback will win easily? I've had a hard time accepting that this race could very well go Democratic, just because it's Kansas, so I definitely see where you're coming from. But at the same time, Brownback has not led in a single poll since April (other than that crank YouGov poll), and Davis's leads tend to be outside the MOE as well.

I think what we're seeing here is that far-right agendas and a lack of substantive policy plans can win reelection easily in Congress because you are voting as one of many and aren't directly tied as an individual to results, but as Governor you are held accountable for the direction of the state so when that "agenda" hurts the state (as it has in Kansas), you pay the political price.

I do agree that Roberts will win reelection easily though. Ideologically, he hasn't done anything to alienate enough voters (even if his lack of Kansas ties are pretty embarrassing), and Taylor is clearly a weak campaigner considering how close the primary was.

[NHLiberal]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

I see where you're coming from and it's definitely possible that it will turn out that way, but since Dems are just (or almost) as disgusted by the GOP as Republicans are with Obama and the Dems, shouldn't that by your logic mean that Malloy and Quinn should also be safe (or at least not trailing)? I think Malloy and Quinn will lose, and I think Brownback and Deal will probably lose too, because all four are simply bad governors, and highly unpopular in states filled with their fellow partisans. I'm not saying the situations are exactly parallel (partly cause Malloy and Quinm barely won in 2010 when Brownback and Deal won easily), but it's pretty close.

[NHLiberal]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

I see where you're coming from and it's definitely possible that it will turn out that way, but since Dems are just (or almost) as disgusted by the GOP as Republicans are with Obama and the Dems, shouldn't that by your logic mean that Malloy and Quinn should also be safe (or at least not trailing)?

...no because Dems have been proven to be not nearly as motivated as Republicans to turn out this year.

Except we're at the point now in which LV models are being used. I'm not saying this poll is accurate, but you don't get to dismiss every recent poll of one or more races because "Dems have been proven to be not nearly as motivated as Republicans to turn out" when we're using Likely Voter models.

Exactly. Also, that argument would apply in a swing race like North Carolina but is completely irrelevant in a state like CT or IL where Malloy and Quinn will lose due to a chunk of otherwise reliably Democratic voters voting against them because they are so bad-- not because of low turnout. Besides, Dem turnout shouldn't be as bad as in 2010 because they have a House GOP to be furious at, rather than just being apathetic like in 2010 because their party was in complete control. And that's proven because, even though being at a disadvantage this year (at least in the Senate), Democrats are playing some offense in the Senate, House, and governor's races especially, which was not the case at all in 2010 other than a bit of low hanging fruit like CA-Gov and the House races in New Orleans and Hawaii.