Turkish Presidential Election: August 10, 2014

[Tender Branson]

Erdogan very likely to be elected President tomorrow !

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_presidential_election,_2014

edit by el caudillo: keep the editorializing down

[Famous Mortimer]

Is he really going to be PM and President?

I assumed he and Gul were going to switch places again.

Or perhaps the deputy PM who told women not to laugh will get a promotion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be most helpful if the opposition ceased to suck so mightily.

[Famous Mortimer]

All the main opposition parties have nominated an Islamic flavored technocrat.

The Kurdish party has thrown its support behind an extremely socially liberal candidate who supports gay marriage.

[Tender Branson]

90.46% counted:

R.T. Erdoğan - 19.662.188 votes - 51,39%
E.M. İhsanoğlu - 15.070.638 votes - 39,39%
S. Demirtaş - 3.528.900 votes - 9,22%

55.801.144 eligible voters
Turnout: 69.79% (so far)

Map:

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/cumhurbaskanligisecimi/cha.asp

[Simfan34]

Suspiciously just over the line.

[Beezer]

http://election.todayszaman.com/election

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh

[RogueBeaver]

Tender: How long will Erdogan need to rejig the constitution for an executive presidency?

[Хahar 🤔]

You people can do better than this thread.

[palandio]

Patience.

[swl]

Erdogan is probably not a really good person, but many people are exaggerating his negative impact on Turkey (mainly because we are focusing on things that do not matter much for a majority of Turks).

[EPG]

Erdogan is probably not a really good person, but many people are exaggerating his negative impact on Turkey (mainly because we are focusing on things that do not matter much for a majority of Turks).

I think they valued Turkey as an illustration that Islam can co-exist with secularism and Western alignment. But that illustration was always based on the power of the generals rather than a settled democratic consensus.

I would speculate that many of the disappointed people were advocates of the rights of Muslim immigrants in Europe, who opposed anti-immigrant rhetoric that Islam is incompatible with secularism and democracy, a rhetoric which has been corroborated by recent events in the Near and Middle East.

[swl]

Well, whatever is one's opinion on this issue, I don't think it should change because or thanks to Erdogan. Turkey has never been a democracy comparable to Western European or American democracies; it's also true that Erdogan became more authoritarian lately which is never a good thing, but we can't draw conclusions from that.

Let me paste a post from an Erdogan supporter:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maybe there are some exaggerations, but I am curious to know the answer of Erdogan's opponents.

[Хahar 🤔]

Obviously Islam is incompatible with "secularism" in the Turkish sense, given that that is incompatible with all religion.

[Foucaulf]

I would speculate that many of the disappointed people were advocates of the rights of Muslim immigrants in Europe, who opposed anti-immigrant rhetoric that Islam is incompatible with secularism and democracy, a rhetoric which has been corroborated by recent events in the Near and Middle East.

That's a pretty weak corroboration. What about the 61% of registered Turks who didn't vote for Erdogan, some of which must be Muslim through proportions alone? And we can also interpret political Islam differently from the beliefs held by a much wider swath of the population.

The same people who oppose Erdogan are those who would oppose strongmen anywhere; liberals, expat intellectuals and rights lawyers. As it turns out, they also aren't those who can present themselves as strong leaders.

[EPG]

Of course we can interpret electoral statistics however we like, if we are the type of people interested in electoral statistics. The average person is more likely to hear about Turkish politics through stories like AKP politicians thinking they have the right to tell women that they shouldn't laugh in public. I think this is one reason why the anti-Erdogan sentiment is more heartfelt than, say, anti-Thai junta or even anti-Sisi sentiment: Turkey was once a secular Islamic country with democratic institutions (albeit flawed ones) on the way to EU membership, and it therefore appeared to be a living refutation of common negative perceptions of Islam, which have been a well-worn path to success among the far-right in Europe in the last 15 years. It's more difficult to refute them when Erdogan's ministers lecture women about laughter, when the brothers and the Sisi take over in Egypt, when the so-called "Islamic State" publicises its menace, and so on.

[Хahar 🤔]

The central issue at hand is that Turkey is now a democratic country (which has not necessarily been true in the past) and that Kemalism is not an electorally viable ideology. As long as that remains the case the AKP will continue to win, because it represents the majority of the Turkish people. This is true across the entire country, as a quick look at the electoral map will show. The AKP is not a movement of backwards hicks.

In other words, despite the sincere attempts on the part of Atatürk and Kemalists to whitewash Turkey, Turks are under no obligation to conform to whatever left/right liberal/illiberal paradigm that Westerners insist on forcing upon them. That Erdoğan is generally popular and has not always been completely on board with state control over Islam does not make him some combination of Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Khomeini. Turkish history and politics are fascinating as they are. It does nobody any good to muddle things by focusing on what this means for secularism in Europe.

Now, if we'd actually like to discuss this election rather than bemoaning the death of laïcité in Turkey, I'd be very interested in doing that.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I don't know if there is really too much to discuss about the election itself. The geographic patterns, for instance, seem quite "normal" for the time after the rise of the AKP.

The further implications of it are, of course, interesting. Will AKP/Erdogan succeed to alter Turkey to a full presidential system of government? Are there any hindrances to the tendencies of authorianism and corruption we can see, especially in the last years?
Will the economic course of growth at all costs go on? How long can it go on?
When will there ever emerge an alternative to AKP other then petrified Kemalism? It actually has to happen at some point.

In a less general attempt: Is there something like an Erdogan-Gül-Showdown going on? German media imply that.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Of course we can interpret electoral statistics however we like, if we are the type of people interested in electoral statistics. The average person is more likely to hear about Turkish politics through stories like AKP politicians thinking they have the right to tell women that they shouldn't laugh in public. I think this is one reason why the anti-Erdogan sentiment is more heartfelt than, say, anti-Thai junta or even anti-Sisi sentiment: Turkey was once a secular Islamic country with democratic institutions (albeit flawed ones) on the way to EU membership, and it therefore appeared to be a living refutation of common negative perceptions of Islam, which have been a well-worn path to success among the far-right in Europe in the last 15 years. It's more difficult to refute them when Erdogan's ministers lecture women about laughter, when the brothers and the Sisi take over in Egypt, when the so-called "Islamic State" publicises its menace, and so on.

I think you're being a bit melodramatic. AKP are full of anti-women idiots, but conservative politicians making misogynistic gaffs is hardly an exclusively Islamic phenomenon.

Let's not forget that one of the drawbacks to European integration was the Turkish army's constant threats of coup's. That threat has largely ended. Erdogan has also been slightly better than the secularists in regards to Kurdish rights. As far as EU membership is concerned, well, I think it's fair enough to say that was never going to happen anyway. I'm surprised Turkey even bother keeping up the pretence.

The Kemalists would be best to emphasize worker's rights in regards to that coal mining disaster. Something to mobilise the war, once the shine comes off Turkish growth.

[palandio]

Current CHP chairman Kılıçdaroğlu actually stood for slightly more emphasis on social democracy and slightly less emphasis on nationalism, but inside the CHP they're already working against him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While it is no longer true to say that the AKP are clearly 'better' than the (non-Kurdish) opposition,* we have not yet reached the point where the (non-Kurdish) opposition is clearly 'better' than the AKP. The CHP remains a rather distasteful outfit interested mostly in protecting the position of elite groups and (very mild) attempts to change that are (as palandio points out) running into difficulty. The MHP - an actual open and unashamed fascist party - is even worse.

_{*Or Erdogan's faction of the AKP anyway.}

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who are the CHP's main demographic target - elderly people nostalgic for Kemal or younger anti-Erdogan urbans?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Is there any word on who will replace Erdogan as PM?

[Filuwaúrdjan]