NC: Rasmussen: Tillis leads by 5 (user search)
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  NC: Rasmussen: Tillis leads by 5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC: Rasmussen: Tillis leads by 5  (Read 2372 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: August 07, 2014, 10:29:09 AM »
« edited: August 07, 2014, 10:32:57 AM by SPC »

Link coming.

Tillis (R)- 45%
Hagan (D)- 40%

Typical for Rassy. Their last poll was Tillis +1; since then, the consensus of the other pollsters is that Tillis has lost ground.

Every pollster except PPP in the last month has had Tillis ahead. For perspective, at this point in 2010, PPP had Burr leading by only 2 points when their competitors (which, like now, consisted of Rasmussen, Civitas, and a third pollster) gave Burr leads of 7,9, and 10. In 2012, PPP had Obama up 3 when their competitors gave Romney leads of 1 and 5 points. While after the last two elections, I am generally reluctant to base predictions off of Rasmussen or Republican-affiliated pollsters, it seems evident that PPP tends to overestimate Democratic support in their home state when Election Day is a few months away. The only plausible exception would be 2008, but even then every pollster (including PPP) showed Hagan and Obama gain ground between August and November, so that example cannot even be used in PPP's defense.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2014, 10:36:57 AM »

Every pollster except PPP in the last month has had Tillis ahead.

Gravis?

My mistake, although you will have to forgive me for trusting the combined input of YouGov, Civitas, and Rasmussen over Gravis.
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