HI-Ward Research/Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now: Hanabusa+8 over Schatz
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Author Topic: HI-Ward Research/Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now: Hanabusa+8 over Schatz  (Read 1001 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 04, 2014, 06:36:49 AM »
As you may know, there is also an election for U.S. senator this year. If the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for:

50% Colleen Hanabusa
42% Brian Schatz

http://hine.ws/hipoll14senate
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Knives
solopop
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2014, 07:00:59 AM »
Anyone know if they're reliable because that would be a big change in the race.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2014, 07:09:30 AM »
Quote from: Solopop on August 04, 2014, 07:00:59 AM
Anyone know if they're reliable because that would be a big change in the race.

In 2010 and 2012 they had the best polls, so yeah (but like all pollsters were way off in 2010).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/hi/hawaii_senate_lingle_vs_hirono-2138.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/hi/hawaii_governor_aiona_vs_abercrombie-1163.html

From what I know, they didn't poll the 2008/2012 Presidential races (Obama blowouts), or the 2010 Senate race (another blowout).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2014, 09:24:06 AM »
Believe when seen, as with everything HI.
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Vega
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2014, 11:15:49 AM »
Nah. Not buying it.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2014, 02:59:10 PM »
Two Hawaii polls contradict each other?!

I'm shocked I tell you...SHOCKED!!!!
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2014, 06:48:54 PM »
Ward Research is a local Hawaiian pollster.  They probably have more expertise in polling Hawaii than mainland pollsters like Merriman River Group, which polled for Civil Beat.  That being said, local pollster doesn't necessarily mean better pollster.

The weather might be a factor in Saturday's election.  Hawaii is currently in the path of Hurricane Iselle, which is predicted to weaken into a tropical storm before hitting the islands Thursday into Friday.  Roads might be a mess on Saturday in the aftermath of the storm.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2014, 07:34:04 PM »
Ward Research is the more accurate (or less inaccurate Tongue) one, per Harry Enten.
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Vega
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2014, 07:36:43 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on August 04, 2014, 06:48:54 PM
The weather might be a factor in Saturday's election.  Hawaii is currently in the path of Hurricane Iselle, which is predicted to weaken into a tropical storm before hitting the islands Thursday into Friday.  Roads might be a mess on Saturday in the aftermath of the storm.

Nah, from what I heard it won't effect it. Hawaii News Now had an article about how the Hurricane will miss most of Hawaii's main islands, but they took it down.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2014, 07:41:30 PM »
Quote from: Vega on August 04, 2014, 07:36:43 PM
Quote from: cinyc on August 04, 2014, 06:48:54 PM
The weather might be a factor in Saturday's election.  Hawaii is currently in the path of Hurricane Iselle, which is predicted to weaken into a tropical storm before hitting the islands Thursday into Friday.  Roads might be a mess on Saturday in the aftermath of the storm.

Nah, from what I heard it won't effect it. Hawaii News Now had an article about how the Hurricane will miss most of Hawaii's main islands, but they took it down.

The Big Island is smack in the middle of the National Hurricane Center's 5-day cone, albeit as a tropical storm, not a hurricane.  At a minimum, it still should bring a lot of rain to the islands.  Perhaps not damaging winds, though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2014, 12:20:54 PM »
This is the same poll that said Aiona is leading by 7 on Ige in the governor's race.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2014, 12:23:30 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on August 05, 2014, 12:20:54 PM
This is the same poll that said Aiona is leading by 7 on Ige in the governor's race.

We'll see soon enough who's right and who's not, Ward or MRG.
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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2014, 12:34:04 PM »
^ They have Abercrombie getting crushed in the primary though. The Ige lead is consistent throughout the polls and I think he's up by about 10 overall. I don't see as many Ige/Schatz voters as the polls suggest.

I think there will be some crossover, but if Abercrombie loses by >10 points, that's gonna really drag Schatz down.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2014, 06:53:38 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2014, 06:56:38 AM by Tender Branson »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 05, 2014, 12:23:30 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on August 05, 2014, 12:20:54 PM
This is the same poll that said Aiona is leading by 7 on Ige in the governor's race.

We'll see soon enough who's right and who's not, Ward or MRG.

Turns out that no poll was right.

PPP was off by 9 (Schatz+10) and Ward was also off by 9 (Hanabusa+8).

Ward had the best Governor poll though.

The "best" Senate poll was by MRG (Schatz+8).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2014, 07:03:26 AM »
So poll averages really are the best solution. Wink
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2014, 11:28:06 AM »
It's a really good thing that Hawaii isn't a swing state. We would have literally no idea what was going to happen until the votes had been counted!
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GAworth
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2014, 05:44:52 PM »
Schatz up 1600 votes on Hanabusa.
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/category/282081/campaign-2014
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