AZ-PrimR/Magellan (R): Ducey ahead, Jones fading, Smith with the momentum

[Tender Branson]

Beginning last Monday-Thursday nights - 1,644 likely Republican voters were surveyed by Magellan Strategies. Similar tracking polling will continue each week through the August 26th Republican primary.

GOVERNOR'S RACE

Doug Ducey: 23%
Scott Smith: 21%
Christine Jones: 13%
Ken Bennett: 12%
Andrew Thomas: 10%
Frank Riggs: 5%
Undecided: 16%

Contrary to media reports over the past couple of weeks describing a 2-person race between Ducey and Jones these results suggest voters are growing weary and disliking of Jones, reinforced by a Favorable/Unfavorable ratio that is well upside-down (25/52).

This polling sample included a high number of independents (21%), and that's where Smith gains ground. But the actual number of independents voting on August 26th is likely to be around half this amount – or less. So a look at Republican voters only is important. There we find:

Doug Ducey: 26%
Scott Smith: 18%
Christine Jones: 15%
Ken Bennett: 12%
Andrew Thomas: 12%
Frank Riggs: 5%
Undecided: 12%

http://www.azcentral.com/story/brahm-resnik/2014/08/06/arizona-republican-governor-primary-poll-ducey-smith-jones/13665521/

[Maxwell]

Holy smokes this primary is a blood bath.

[GaussLaw]

Do Dems have a chance here?

[Miles]

Do Dems have a chance here?

Yes. They have a non-Some Dude candidate in Fred DuVal (worked in Clinton WH) plus the obvious benefit of a highly fractured Republican primary.

I'd probably start the general election off as Tilt R, but this could be competitive.

[NHLiberal]

Do Dems have a chance here?

I think it's pretty universally ranked as "Lean R," mostly because there's been very little polling and the primary is so unclear. It will probably shift one way or another (to toss-up status or stronger Republican advantage) once we know who the Republican nominee is and we get some better polling of the general.

[Miles]

Palin for Ducey, Brewer for Smith.