AR-PPP: Cotton +2

[GaussLaw]

So Pryor is where he was early this year before his good string of polls.

His momentum basically died.

[GaussLaw]

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

Is French Hill really that bad of a candidate?

[GaussLaw]

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

In the unlikely event that a white liberal wins a district in Arkansas, redistricting can promptly throw him out in 2 years.

Actually no, by 2022, they won't be able to have all four of the seats, they will have to draw a sink, anyways that will be moot after Benton county starts to become more progressive, which every political consultant in the states says will happen.

Why would Benton be more progressive?  It's one of the most Republican counties in the state.

Is this like NoVA or something?

[GaussLaw]

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

In the unlikely event that a white liberal wins a district in Arkansas, redistricting can promptly throw him out in 2 years.

Actually no, by 2022, they won't be able to have all four of the seats, they will have to draw a sink, anyways that will be moot after Benton county starts to become more progressive, which every political consultant in the states says will happen.

Why would Benton be more progressive?  It's one of the most Republican counties in the state.

Is this like NoVA or something?

I don't quite understand it either. Historically its the most republican county and still is one of the most. We've seen many historically republican areas turn not as republican (Chicago suburbs, Southern California) but it hasn't trended democratic since before 2000.

Yeah.  And the left is no fan of Wal Mart, which is headquartered in that county.  So the "upscale educated cosmopolitan suburbanites" or whatever (who are mischaracterized as always voting Democratic, which is refuted by a bunch of examples[Douglas County, CO; Hamilton County, IN; St. Tammany Parish, LA; etc.] ) are not exactly going to be flocking to the Democrats.

Since the county has trended R 4 elections in a row, the only way I see it trending D is a massive influx of minorities.

[GaussLaw]

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

In the unlikely event that a white liberal wins a district in Arkansas, redistricting can promptly throw him out in 2 years.

Actually no, by 2022, they won't be able to have all four of the seats, they will have to draw a sink, anyways that will be moot after Benton county starts to become more progressive, which every political consultant in the states says will happen.

Why would Benton be more progressive?  It's one of the most Republican counties in the state.

Is this like NoVA or something?

Yes.  The area in 2012 in low turnout primary election got rid of there ban on alcohol by a 66-34 vote.  Minority's are a factor, but most of it is due to the urbanization of the area and the growing arts scene.  It won't happen for another few election cycles, but it is trending Democratic, Obama skewed it.

Go to this link and go to about 13:45 on the video.  Those guys are the best guys in the state and they explain this much better.
http://youtu.be/b23VoWiI9xs?list=UUSzc0eabet1fw2z73oil0Hg

Wow.  This is a really nice video.  I love the in-depth analysis.