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  Talk Elections
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  AR-PPP: Cotton +2
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Author Topic: AR-PPP: Cotton +2  (Read 3406 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: August 05, 2014, 10:20:27 am »

43/41 in a 2-way race, 41/39 with minor candidates included.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2014, 10:48:24 am »

Pryor's approval and favorable/unfavorable percentages are terrible.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2014, 10:54:41 am »

So Pryor is where he was early this year before his good string of polls.

His momentum basically died.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2014, 11:20:07 am »

Wow,
35-51,
That is very low.

I now consider this race as at least tilt rep.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2014, 11:39:34 am »

Every pollster has Pryor back to being behind, even his internals can only show him ahead by 2. His approval and favorability is terrible (Cotton's favorability is neutral). Third parties are a non-factor, and Arkansas is quite red.

Back to Lean R territory.
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2014, 11:40:36 am »

...we all saw this coming.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2014, 12:45:33 pm »

Even PPP? Then fall Pryor!
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Never
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2014, 12:49:25 pm »

So Pryor is where he was early this year before his good string of polls.

His momentum basically died.

Yes, given the dynamics of this race, it's closer to Lean R than Tossup.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2014, 01:04:37 pm »

Ugh. That is bad news.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2014, 01:09:31 pm »


This entire senate race is bad news. Both candidates are atrocious.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2014, 01:23:38 pm »

Question is if the lead flips again or Cotton starts clawing up in September. Dems say Pryor's never been down in their internals, but apart from NV 2010 I can't think of a recent Lower 48 case where private polls completely contradicted public ones.
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RR1997
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2014, 01:24:32 pm »

Tilt R
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xavier110
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2014, 01:26:51 pm »

I would say those numbers aren't that bad for Pryor. So many female undecideds is great news for him.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2014, 01:27:43 pm »

RIP Democratic Senate majority.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2014, 01:31:28 pm »

Excellent News! That theocrat Mark Pryor will be crushed!
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2014, 01:47:28 pm »


Cotton isn't necessary for the majority. So long as we hold Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa we are fine.

Landrieu has a better chance at holding on (although I think she loses the run-off), and Nunn or Grimes making it through secures the majority.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2014, 02:29:32 pm »

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2014, 02:35:12 pm »

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-08-03

Summary: D: 41%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Free Bird
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« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2014, 04:07:32 pm »


Cotton isn't necessary for the majority. So long as we hold Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa we are fine.

Landrieu has a better chance at holding on (although I think she loses the run-off), and Nunn or Grimes making it through secures the majority.

Enough with the "we" stuff
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2014, 04:11:52 pm »


Cotton isn't necessary for the majority. So long as we hold Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa we are fine.

Not if Hagan loses.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2014, 05:06:17 pm »

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

Is French Hill really that bad of a candidate?
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #21 on: August 05, 2014, 05:10:46 pm »


Cotton isn't necessary for the majority. So long as we hold Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa we are fine.

Not if Hagan loses.

Dream on.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2014, 11:44:05 pm »


Who did? The conventional wisdom here for quite a while was that Pryor was going to get Blanched. Pryor is probably going to lose, but at least he's keeping it competitive.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2014, 09:41:57 am »

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

Is French Hill really that bad of a candidate?
No, Pat Hays is that good of a candidate.  He's from a swing part of the district, his name rec is amazing to all of the district, and he is doing much better with voters outside of Pulaski County.  On the other side of that, French is doing better with Pulaski voters.

Something else, Here is what I would expect a democrat to get in a election in 2020.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2014, 10:18:27 am »

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

In the unlikely event that a white liberal wins a district in Arkansas, redistricting can promptly throw him out in 2 years.
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