Which state or province is most conservative?

[TDAS04]

What do you think?

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think LePage could ever get elected in New Brunswick or PEI. But both provinces are more conservative than people think.

[Vosem]

I remember reading about the 2004 election, and seeing that the one opinion poll conducted saw Kerry ahead in all provinces (including Alberta) but one...which was New Brunswick. But I don't know if that was a very good poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

It wouldn't have had a large sample size, but I have seen US Presidential polls that suggest Republican candidates tend to do better in Atlantic Canada than even Alberta.

[King of Kensington]

I don't buy these "Alberta would only vote 25% McCain/Romney" polls.  If it were an American state politically it would probably look like a mix of Alaska, Colorado and Wyoming.

[Boston Bread]

It wouldn't have had a large sample size, but I have seen US Presidential polls that suggest Republican candidates tend to do better in Atlantic Canada than even Alberta.

This wasn't the case in 2012, according to this poll:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/04/canada-calls-the-u-s-election-guess-who-wins-obama-or-romney/

85% for Obama in Atlantic, 57% Obama in Alberta. Did a huge swing happen? My guess is a sample size issues are at work here.

As for the thread question, Canadian Conservatives are more moderate but they still get only ~40% in a good year while McCain got over 40% in Maine in a bad year for them. So Maine wins.

[Boston Bread]

I don't buy these "Alberta would only vote 25% McCain/Romney" polls.  If it were an American state politically it would probably look like a mix of Alaska, Colorado and Wyoming.

25% is too low, but I think Alberta would still be a blue state.
Alberta is far more socially liberal than people think.
http://www.calgaryherald.com/health/Albertans+shed+traditional+stereotype+with+more+progressive+views+social+issues+poll+finds/7567782/story.html

According to this poll, over 70% support same-sex marriage and 80% say abortion is a "private matter". These poll results follow trends from previous years so they shouldn't be too far off. Alberta would be more socially liberal than Vermont or Rhode Island based on these results. Alberta would be conservative on energy policy, maybe economics and guns (relative to the U.S. Alberta would be more moderate on economics and guns). But given the extent that U.S. voting patterns are decided on gays and fetuses it isn't a stretch to believe Alberta would be blue/atlas red.

If Alberta was annexed by the U.S. long ago then its political evolution would have followed states like Montana.

[King of Kensington]

But more blue in a Colorado kind of way, not a Massachusetts kind of way.

[Sumner 1868]

I remember reading about the 2004 election, and seeing that the one opinion poll conducted saw Kerry ahead in all provinces (including Alberta) but one...which was New Brunswick. But I don't know if that was a very good poll.

No Republican has ever lead Canada in polling since the question was first asked in 1960. Reagan and Mondale tied in 1984, but otherwise they've preferred Democrats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thought Reagan might've been been more popular.

[King of Kensington]

So what would Canada's "Republican counties" be? (I guess we'd use should use regional districts in BC and census divisions in the Prairie provinces.)  That list shouldn't be very long.

[Boston Bread]

The red counties are my rough guess for Romney counties.

Regional results (2-party vote):
BC: 70-30
Alberta: 55-45
Praries: 60-40
Ontario: 70-30
Quebec: 85-15
Atlantic: 70-30 (NB being the closest)

[Hatman 🍁]

You might want to consult this map:

[Boston Bread]

Nice find! My map is quite similar to the >60% to >70% CPC areas on your map. I should adjust some Prairie divisions to better reflect the actual results.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nice find? I did make the map

[Boston Bread]

Nice find? I did make the map

Alright, you get full credit. I missed the "Map by Earl Washburn" at the bottom.

I used your map as a basis for changing some areas:


I also used census results as a measure of religious demographics. The high level of irreligion is why Northern Alberta and BC are weaker for Romney than the 2011 vote would suggest.

[King of Kensington]

For Ontario, any county where the provincial Tories got over 50% of the vote in 2014 seems like a good proxy for "Republican county."  So yeah, that includes Leeds-Grenville and Renfrew.  Maybe Lanark and Norfolk as well?

Northern Alberta would probably have Alaska-type voting patterns.