HI-Ward Research/Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now: Aiona (R) ahead
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Author Topic: HI-Ward Research/Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now: Aiona (R) ahead  (Read 2077 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 04, 2014, 06:30:39 AM »

We have an election for governor this year. If the Democratic Primary for governor were held today, who would you vote for:

54% David Ige
36% Neil Abercrombie

If the General Election for governor were held today, and the candidates were David Ige, Mufi Hannemann, and James "Duke" Aiona, who would you vote for:

41% James "Duke" Aiona (R)
34% David Ige (D)
15% Mufi Hannemann (I)

If the General Election for governor were held today, and the candidates were Neil Abercrombie, Mufi Hannemann, and James “Duke” Aiona, who would you vote for:

45% James "Duke" Aiona (R)
30% Neil Abercrombie (D)
14% Mufi Hannemann (I)

Do you generally approve or disapprove of Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s job performance?

38-56 disapprove

Favorable ratings:

63-24 Aiona (R)
57-15 Ige (D)
39-49 Hannemann (I)
38-58 Abercrombie (D)

http://hine.ws/hipoll14gov
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Flake
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2014, 07:48:40 AM »

New Poll: Hawaii Governor by Ward Research on 2014-08-03

Summary: D: 34%, R: 41%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Never
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2014, 08:16:25 AM »

It is surprising that Aiona manages to beat Ige in this matchup. I suspect that Ige will obtain enough support after winning the primary to lead Aiona; it is doubtful that the race will end up looking like these poll results come November.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2014, 09:13:41 AM »

The only way I see Aiona beating Ige is if Abercrombie supporters vote for Hannemann and split the D vote
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2014, 09:21:58 AM »

This primary will be very interesting... but I still believe Dems win the GE.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2014, 09:37:03 AM »

The only way I see Aiona beating Ige is if Abercrombie supporters vote for Hannemann and split the D vote

Flip Ige and Abercrombie and I see you being correct. Remeber that Hannemann was Abercrombie's primary opponent for Governor in 2010, and some of those voters would probably stick with Hannemann due to Abercrombie's governorship. Ige would bring more of those people back.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2014, 09:42:28 AM »

The only way I see Aiona beating Ige is if Abercrombie supporters vote for Hannemann and split the D vote

Flip Ige and Abercrombie and I see you being correct. Remeber that Hannemann was Abercrombie's primary opponent for Governor in 2010, and some of those voters would probably stick with Hannemann due to Abercrombie's governorship. Ige would bring more of those people back.
I guess it works both ways, but Aiona has an advantage against Abercrombie in that he is an incredibly unpopular governor while Ige is simply a generic D which is why im surprised he trails Aiona
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Vega
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2014, 03:07:29 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2014, 03:09:50 PM by Vega »

The numbers won't hold. If Abercrombie beat Aiona, Ige certainly will.

Like Maxy said, Ige is in a better position because he'll pick up some of Hannemann's voters.
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henster
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2014, 03:49:43 PM »

At this point it looks like Ige is the more electable candidate and it should be who Democrats should support in a primary.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2014, 07:44:59 PM »

What the hell is up with Hawaii??

I don't see Aiona beating Ige, I'll have to see other polls to believe he has a good chance.
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Vega
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2014, 08:50:36 PM »


More like what the hell is up with Hawaii's polling companies.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2014, 08:58:25 AM »


More like what the hell is up with Hawaii's polling companies.

They were largely off in 2012 as well.  So many thought HI-SEN was competitive when it just wasn't...
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Never
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2014, 10:06:22 AM »


More like what the hell is up with Hawaii's polling companies.

They were largely off in 2012 as well.  So many thought HI-SEN was competitive when it just wasn't...

Linda Lingle should have been more formidable than she was in that race, which probably explains why many assumed that the election was competitive. She was the strongest Republican that the party could have put up in any Hawaiian election. Hirono definitely had the advantage going into election night, but I was mildly surprised to see that Lingle couldn't even manage 40% of the vote.
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Vega
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2014, 10:26:33 AM »


More like what the hell is up with Hawaii's polling companies.

They were largely off in 2012 as well.  So many thought HI-SEN was competitive when it just wasn't...

Linda Lingle should have been more formidable than she was in that race, which probably explains why many assumed that the election was competitive. She was the strongest Republican that the party could have put up in any Hawaiian election. Hirono definitely had the advantage going into election night, but I was mildly surprised to see that Lingle couldn't even manage 40% of the vote.

The 2012 Democratic Senate primary polls were even more off. They showed a close race between Hirono and Case.

Hirono ended up beating Case by almost 20 points, even though the Civil Beat poll showed Ed Case leading Hirono by 1 point.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2014, 10:56:04 AM »

Maybe it has to do with telephone polling? I know many Asian families won't answer a telephone poll (or really any phone call from someone they don't know Tongue)
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Vega
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« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2014, 11:55:09 AM »

Maybe it has to do with telephone polling? I know many Asian families won't answer a telephone poll (or really any phone call from someone they don't know Tongue)

People refusing to be polled are part of why the polls are bad. But not all of it.
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sg0508
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« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2014, 08:11:09 PM »

HI's polls never seem accurate.  If you remember, there were a few pretty close polls, two with Bush even leading Kerry there in Oct'14.  Then, Kerry won the state by nine points, which is tighter than normal for HI, but still not that competitive in the grand scheme of things.

Lingle was also leading Cayetano in '98 and lost late.
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